Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:53:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
A3 0xa35b…0ecc sports 402 markets active 1h ago coverage 242d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$52 (-0%) realized −$52 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate54%217W / 182L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$182per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$74est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$876
7 days−$402
14 days−$476
30 days−$761
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$107
other 6% +$417
crypto 2% −$297
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +15.1% +4.2% 68% 65% -15.7%
≤30d 37 +7.6% -2.6% 65% 62% -18.6%
≤90d 38 +8.5% -1.9% 66% 63% -18.0%
all 399 +2.1% -7.7% 54% 53% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 53% -9.5%
10% -16.5% 49% -18.2%
15% -24.6% 46% -26.1%
20% -32.0% 43% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$118 vs −$140 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

242d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$52
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses217 / 182
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$74
Open positions0
Markets (closed)399 / 402
History coverage242d
Avg bet$182
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 399 Trades
no open positions (161 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Team Nemesis (+1.5) Jun 17 $102 +$98 +97%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $143 −$60 -42%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $481 +$64 +13%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $10 +$9 +86%
Game Handicap: LGD (-1.5) vs Amaru Gaming (+1.5) Jun 17 $302 +$92 +30%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: Argenti Jun 17 $25 +$9 +34%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $502 +$95 +19%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $101 +$45 +44%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $134 +$14 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $127 +$84 +66%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $88 +$109 +124%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $132 +$85 +65%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $135 +$91 +67%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $201 −$8 -4%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $124 +$44 +35%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $319 +$105 +33%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $76 +$60 +79%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $135 +$103 +76%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $147 −$139 -94%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $76 −$75 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $202 +$88 +43%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $187 +$106 +57%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $132 +$100 +76%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $101 +$50 +50%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $361 −$360 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $302 −$300 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $102 +$105 +103%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $537 −$530 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $388 −$386 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 11 $101 −$1 -2%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $409 +$180 +44%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $302 +$104 +34%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $302 +$103 +34%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $264 −$261 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 04 $201 −$200 -99%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $287 −$285 -99%
Dota 2: 1win vs Team Lynx - Game 1 Winner Mar 21 $100 +$41 +41%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 Winner Mar 16 $103 −$103 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid - Game 4 Winner Mar 15 $888 −$448 -50%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Mar 15 $299 −$299 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid (BO5) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Mar 15 $800 +$171 +21%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Mar 15 $300 +$201 +67%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Mar 15 $350 −$200 -57%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Mar 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Mar 15 $200 +$114 +57%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner Mar 14 $1,442 +$196 +14%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Mar 14 $1,516 +$29 +2%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Mar 14 $300 −$300 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Feb 05 $200 −$200 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Team Nemesis (+1.5) SELL PlayTime 100¢ $200 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 39¢ $84 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $143 2h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner SELL PlayTime 100¢ $545 2h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY PlayTime 88¢ $481 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 53¢ $10 3h
Game Handicap: LGD (-1.5) vs Amaru Gaming (+1.5) SELL LGD Gaming 100¢ $394 3h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: England (-1.5) AND Spread: Colombi BUY 21¢ $36 10h
Game Handicap: LGD (-1.5) vs Amaru Gaming (+1.5) BUY LGD Gaming 76¢ $302 10h
Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Team Nemesis (+1.5) BUY PlayTime 50¢ $102 10h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 84¢ $502 17h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Refuser 100¢ $146 19h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 SELL Over 72¢ $148 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL 83¢ $211 20h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Refuser 69¢ $101 20h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $88 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY 49¢ $127 25h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner SELL PlayTime 80¢ $193 25h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner BUY PlayTime 82¢ $201 25h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $135 25h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: Argenti BUY 74¢ $25 25h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $134 25h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: Bo BUY 39¢ $25 25h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $132 25h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Yakult Brothers 57¢ $168 34h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 41¢ $124 35h
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner BUY Game Master 75¢ $319 39h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 56¢ $135 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL FUT Esports 3¢ $8 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 AN BUY 4¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 800 history records