Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:34:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa35b…60e9 sports 854 markets active 2h ago coverage 172d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 172d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$20,114 (-5%) realized −$20,276 · open +$162
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%372W / 479L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$521per market
Trades / day17.8pace
Fees−$3,396est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$318now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$260
7 days−$377
14 days−$919
30 days−$3,348
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$23,084
other 4% −$5,394
world 0% +$1,617
crypto 0% +$1,321
politics 0% −$566
tech 0% +$812
culture 0% $0
economics 0% +$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 82 -14.3% -22.5% 40% 40% -14.3%
≤90d 461 -26.9% -33.8% 34% 33% -19.9%
all 851 -3.8% -13.0% 44% 42% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.8 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.0% 42% -13.1%
10% ← realistic here -21.3% 38% -21.4%
15% -28.9% 32% -29.0%
20% -35.9% 25% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$700) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +15% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$427 vs −$384 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$318
Realized−$20,276
Unrealized+$162
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses372 / 479
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$3,396
Open positions1
Markets (closed)851 / 854
History coverage172d ⚠
Avg bet$521
Trades / day17.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 851 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 49¢ 100¢ $156 $318 +$162 (+104%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 166 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $61 −$60 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $204 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $11 −$11 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $30 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $44 −$43 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $33 −$33 -98%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $40 −$39 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $40 +$10 +24%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $56 −$54 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $27 +$23 +84%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $56 −$55 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $211 −$207 -98%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $129 +$82 +63%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $56 +$74 +132%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 07 $99 −$99 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $706 −$697 -99%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $408 −$400 -98%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $543 +$570 +105%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $577 −$32 -6%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $426 +$145 +34%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $109 +$323 +295%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $111 −$109 -98%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $571 −$571 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $409 +$162 +40%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $146 +$263 +180%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $112 +$35 +31%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $946 −$931 -98%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $557 +$390 +70%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $422 +$136 +32%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $1,226 −$743 -61%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $705 +$494 +70%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest - Map 1 Winner Jun 05 $541 +$165 +30%
Map Handicap: TYLOO (-1.5) vs Lynn Vision (+1.5) Jun 05 $94 +$156 +165%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision - Map 1 Winner Jun 05 $222 +$70 +31%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $159 −$155 -97%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $124 −$123 -99%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG - Map 1 Winner Jun 04 $280 −$275 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $560 −$553 -99%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 04 $560 −$559 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $762 −$746 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gaimin Gladiators vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 03 $563 −$549 -98%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 03 $2,256 −$2,219 -98%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $220 −$217 -98%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 03 $1,270 −$1,246 -98%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 03 $103 −$100 -97%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $485 −$475 -98%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 03 $72 −$70 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 49¢ $158 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AN BUY 2¢ $8 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Spread: Germany (-2.5) AND Spread: England (- BUY 1¢ $8 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 34¢ $61 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 41¢ $204 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 20¢ $11 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 50¢ $30 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 33¢ $44 6d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 47¢ $33 6d
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 52¢ $40 7d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY TheMongolz 11¢ $10 7d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 100¢ $50 7d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 80¢ $40 7d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 13¢ $15 8d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 35¢ $56 9d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 38¢ $51 9d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 99¢ $50 9d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 53¢ $27 9d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 30¢ $56 9d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 2 Winner BUY MIBR 46¢ $211 12d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 1 Winner SELL paiN 99¢ $211 12d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 1 Winner BUY paiN 60¢ $129 12d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 1 Winner SELL MIBR 99¢ $129 12d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY MIBR 42¢ $56 12d
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY FUT Esports 27¢ $2 13d
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY FUT Esports 25¢ $96 13d
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY FUT Esports 25¢ $2 13d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY GamerLegion 58¢ $706 13d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner BUY B8 36¢ $408 13d
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 2 Winner SELL paiN 100¢ $1,113 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $317.82 · official $333.82 · 3500 history records