Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:12:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa35a…dddf world 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 281d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-1%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate28%13W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$7
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% −$6
politics 19% $0
other 18% −$2
sports 7% $0
economics 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
weather 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -3.0% -12.2% 38% 0% -11.1%
≤30d 16 -1.0% -10.4% 38% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 16 -1.0% -10.4% 38% 0% -10.2%
all 46 -1.0% -10.4% 28% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 0% -10.1%
10% -19.0% 0% -18.7%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.5%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

281d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses13 / 33
Open positions2
Markets (closed)46 / 48
History coverage281d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 67¢ 68¢ $42 $42 +$0 (+1%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $14 −$1 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $44 −$8 -19%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $135 +$2 +2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $32 $0 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $55 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $54 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $46 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $6 $0 +7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $33 +$1 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $42 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $68 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $132 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $34 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 04 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Oct 04 $30 $0 +1%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Oct 02 $28 $0 -1%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 26 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? Sep 26 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 25 $42 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 23 $29 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 23 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 22 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Sep 22 $28 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 76°F or higher on September Sep 22 $16 $0 +1%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 21 $31 $0 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 21 $15 $0 +2%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 19 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 18 $14 $0 -0%
Skye Valadez confirmed perp? Sep 17 $14 $0 -0%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Sep 17 $17 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 16 $13 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 16 $17 $0 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 15 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 15 $10 −$3 -25%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Sep 15 $2 $0 -7%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 15 $21 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Antoine Massey in 2025? Sep 14 $32 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 13 $24 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 13 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Sep 12 $31 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $42 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $14 13h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 15h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 15h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $10 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 26¢ $36 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $44 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $50 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $50 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $5 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $40 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $45 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $8 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $11 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $19 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 94¢ $28 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 94¢ $3 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $32 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $51 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $50 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $50 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $50 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $31 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $2 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $33 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.86 · official $41.85 (match) · 184 history records