Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:07:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa359…f544 other 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 298d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
Total PnL +$9 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate42%15W / 21L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% +$8
world 35% −$2
politics 9% +$3
tech 8% $0
crypto 5% $0
culture 5% $0
economics 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -9.1% -17.7% 33% 0% -11.4%
≤30d 10 -6.2% -15.2% 30% 0% -10.9%
≤90d 10 -6.2% -15.2% 30% 0% -10.9%
all 36 +0.2% -9.4% 42% 6% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 6% -8.6%
10% -18.0% 6% -17.3%
15% -25.9% 3% -25.3%
20% -33.2% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early 0.17767036187709734% → late 0.20422135536506847% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.52 per $1 lost it wins $2.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

298d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses15 / 21
Open positions2
Markets (closed)36 / 38
History coverage298d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 83¢ 84¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $34 −$1 -3%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $32 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $30 −$1 -4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $31 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -47%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $66 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $35 −$1 -3%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $35 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $4 $0 -5%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 11 $9 $0 +1%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 11 $10 $0 +4%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Dec 11 $10 +$4 +38%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Dec 11 $26 +$6 +23%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $18 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $23 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $26 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $25 +$3 +10%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 30 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $9 $0 -1%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Sep 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 24 $9 $0 +1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Aug 28 $14 $0 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Aug 27 $7 −$1 -8%
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen Aug 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Aug 23 $25 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 22 $25 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? Aug 22 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 22 $27 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 21 $34 $0 +0%
Will Alexei Gorinov win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 21 $41 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 21 $4 $0 +2%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 21 $32 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 21 $40 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 76¢ $25 5h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 76¢ $3 5h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $29 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $16 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $13 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $29 13h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $32 22h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $32 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 44¢ $29 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $30 2d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $31 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $23 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $8 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 47¢ $5 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 46¢ $5 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 33¢ $3 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 33¢ $11 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 33¢ $13 6d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1 7d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $30 7d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $31 8d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 60¢ $34 8d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 62¢ $35 8d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $35 8d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $35 8d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.16 · official $10.07 · 143 history records