Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:37:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa357…29e0 crypto 119 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (327 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$39 (+11%) realized +$39 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate50%60W / 59L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day327.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (327 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 119 -1.8% -11.1% 50% 44% -1.5%
≤30d 119 -1.8% -11.1% 50% 44% -1.5%
≤90d 119 -1.8% -11.1% 50% 44% -1.5%
all 119 -1.8% -11.1% 50% 44% -1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover327.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.1% 44% -1.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.6% 34% -10.9%
15% -27.4% 25% -19.5%
20% -34.5% 18% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses60 / 59
Open positions0
Markets (closed)119 / 119
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day327.0
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 119 Trades
no open positions (30 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$11 +361%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$9 +153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$3 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$2 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$4 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $13 +$47 +346%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 416 history records