Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:43:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa356…5538 world 374 markets active 21h ago coverage 177d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$120 (-10%) realized −$76 · open −$44
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate24%78W / 246L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days+$53
14 days+$44
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$4
other 16% −$31
politics 13% −$53
crypto 12% −$19
finance 7% −$28
sports 3% −$9
tech 2% +$23
economics 1% −$12
culture 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-32.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +23.5% +11.8% 38% 38% +35.6%
≤30d 60 -21.1% -28.7% 25% 23% -11.8%
≤90d 123 -40.2% -45.9% 20% 20% -26.2%
all 324 -25.1% -32.3% 24% 23% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.3% 23% -17.1%
10% -38.7% 22% -25.0%
15% -44.7% 21% -32.3%
20% -50.1% 20% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

177d coverage
Net worth$107
Realized−$76
Unrealized−$44
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses78 / 246
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions49
Markets (closed)324 / 374
History coverage177d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 49 History 324 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 53¢ 88¢ $10 $17 +$7 (+66%)
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026? Yes 50¢ 52¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+4%)
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Yes 44¢ 79¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+78%)
Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026? Yes 23¢ 30¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+31%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 34¢ 36¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 66¢ 83¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+27%)
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Yes 39¢ 49¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+26%)
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? Yes 24¢ 29¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+19%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 8¢ 13¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+75%)
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 68¢ 72¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 29¢ 18¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-36%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 28¢ 14¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-52%)
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? Yes 72¢ 15¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-79%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 45¢ 88¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+94%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 14¢ 13¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 10¢ 18¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+85%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 22¢ 16¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? Yes 25¢ 18¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-29%)
Will Revolut launch a USD stablecoin in 2026? Yes 54¢ 22¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-59%)
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? Yes 21¢ 24¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will anyone say "Alien" during Rick and Morty E5 S9? Yes 48¢ 28¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-42%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 18, 2026? No 8¢ 9¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump say "World War" during G7 events? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +22%
Will Israel strike 6 countries in 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -66%
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Trump out as President before 2027? Jun 15 $6 −$3 -49%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 15 $14 −$3 -24%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 15 $4 +$5 +114%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $4 +$15 +377%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $2 +$2 +97%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $5 +$15 +291%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $8 +$14 +180%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $5 +$12 +232%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $5 +$22 +431%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Bo Nickal win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $3 +$4 +129%
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Diego Lopes win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $3 +$7 +216%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -76%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -18%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +127%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 09 $5 −$1 -21%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $10 $0 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $10 +$5 +47%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? May 30 $30 −$1 -4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $12 $0 -1%
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? May 26 $20 −$1 -3%
US Kamikaze Dolphins confirmed by May 31? May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $8 −$4 -52%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? May 26 $1 −$1 -63%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 26 $5 −$1 -16%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 24 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 24 $12 −$9 -80%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 25? May 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 24 $5 +$3 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 21h
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 21h
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 21h
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 21h
Will Israel strike 6 countries in 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 21h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AN BUY 15¢ $5 34h
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 16? BUY No 57¢ $2 34h
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 16? BUY No 57¢ $2 34h
Will anyone say "Alien" during Rick and Morty E5 S9? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 34h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 17¢ $3 34h
Will Trump say "World War" during G7 events? BUY Yes 81¢ $3 41h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 41h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 41h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 66¢ $4 41h
Trump out as President before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 41h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 41h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $4 41h
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 45h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 45h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL Yes 88¢ $9 45h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 28¢ $9 45h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $2 2d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 2d
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Over 50¢ $2 2d
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $16 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $17 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $27 2d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 2d
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.56 · official $106.56 (match) · 762 history records