Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:52:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa352…a8ea crypto 22 markets active 6d ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3 (-7%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate64%14W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day49.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -6.8% -15.7% 64% 45% -17.7%
≤30d 22 -6.8% -15.7% 64% 45% -17.7%
≤90d 22 -6.8% -15.7% 64% 45% -17.7%
all 22 -6.8% -15.7% 64% 45% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.7% 45% -17.7%
10% ← realistic here -23.8% 18% -25.6%
15% -31.1% 18% -32.8%
20% -37.9% 9% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses14 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day49.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$1 -27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -74%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$2 -37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 -7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 67 history records