Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:16:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
A3 0xa351…9531 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$150now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$54
7 days−$12
14 days−$12
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% −$1
crypto 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +23.9% +12.1% 75% 75% -13.9%
≤30d 6 +3.0% -6.8% 67% 67% -11.1%
≤90d 6 +3.0% -6.8% 67% 67% -11.1%
all 6 +3.0% -6.8% 67% 67% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 67% -11.1%
10% -15.7% 67% -19.6%
15% -23.9% 50% -27.4%
20% -31.3% 33% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$52 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$150
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage30d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $150 $150 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$18 +36%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$28 +55%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $41 +$43 +105%
Evo Morales arrested by May 31? Jun 01 $50 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $102 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $50 23h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 33h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $41 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 23d
Evo Morales arrested by May 31? BUY No 81¢ $50 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $149.50 · official $149.50 (match) · 12 history records