Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:14:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A3 0xa350…454b sports 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,871 (-19%) realized −$4,906 · open +$35
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate60%24W / 16L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$579per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$146est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$9,035now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$995
7 days+$1,156
14 days+$1,156
30 days−$230
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$1,413
sports 46% −$4,298
crypto 0% −$30
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-27.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -17.6% -25.5% 57% 57% +9.1%
≤30d 33 -5.9% -14.9% 70% 58% -11.4%
≤90d 40 -19.5% -27.2% 60% 50% -26.0%
all 40 -19.5% -27.2% 60% 50% -26.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.2% 50% -26.0%
10% -34.1% 38% -33.0%
15% -40.5% 18% -39.5%
20% -46.3% 2% -45.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$505) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -25% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$131 vs −$381 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$9,035
Realized−$4,906
Unrealized+$35
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses24 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$146
Open positions4
Markets (closed)40 / 44
History coverage59d
Avg bet$579
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $2,600 $2,828 +$228 (+9%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $2,400 $2,750 +$350 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $3,000 $2,425 −$575 (-19%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,000 $1,032 +$32 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $1,518 +$974 +64%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $1,481 +$718 +48%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $1,113 +$287 +26%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $510 −$500 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $505 −$483 -96%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $505 +$171 +34%
Spread: Thunder (-14.5) May 27 $15 −$15 -97%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) May 23 $435 −$155 -36%
Spread: Knicks (-14.5) May 22 $506 −$500 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-11.5) May 21 $1,025 −$1,020 -100%
Istanbul: Pol Martin Tiffon vs Thiago Monteiro May 21 $30 +$13 +44%
Istanbul: Dimitar Kuzmanov vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo May 21 $100 +$15 +14%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) May 21 $1,010 +$461 +46%
Spread: Thunder (-14.5) May 21 $1,295 −$159 -12%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Shuai Zhang vs Diane Parry May 20 $30 +$10 +34%
Spread: Liaoning Tieren FC (-1.5) May 20 $100 +$8 +8%
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 4.5 May 20 $90 +$10 +11%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Sada Nahimana vs Panna Udvardy May 20 $50 +$14 +27%
Geneva Open: Francisco Comesana vs Jaume Munar May 20 $100 +$10 +10%
Geneva Open: Taylor Fritz vs Alexei Popyrin May 20 $100 +$2 +2%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Kathinka von Deichmann vs Himeno Sak May 20 $50 +$15 +30%
Geneva Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Learner Tien May 20 $50 +$11 +23%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Harriet Dart vs Leyre Romero Gormaz May 20 $30 +$11 +35%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Greet Minnen vs Lola Radivojevic May 20 $30 +$11 +38%
Bengaluru 3: Leo Vithoontien vs Petr Bar Biryukov May 20 $30 +$11 +38%
Istanbul: David Jorda Sanchis vs Denis Yevseyev May 20 $30 +$14 +46%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Elena Pridankina vs Julia Avdeeva May 20 $50 +$9 +17%
Geneva Open: Cameron Norrie vs Mariano Navone May 20 $50 +$16 +32%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Clara Tauson vs Jaqueline Cristian May 20 $100 +$7 +8%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Federico Cina vs Bernard Tomic May 20 $100 +$14 +14%
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Hamburg European Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Aleksandar Kovacevic May 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 19 $2,012 +$320 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 05 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 03 $206 −$200 -97%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 03 $206 −$200 -97%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 30 $513 −$500 -97%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 30 $2,150 −$2,120 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY No 56¢ $507 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY No 62¢ $506 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY No 63¢ $506 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? SELL No 99¢ $2,199 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? BUY No 66¢ $471 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? BUY No 66¢ $505 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? BUY No 66¢ $505 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? SELL No 99¢ $1,400 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? BUY No 75¢ $201 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? BUY No 78¢ $503 2h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? BUY No 80¢ $402 2h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? BUY No 81¢ $6 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY No 35¢ $510 26h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Algeria $22 26h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 66¢ $505 27h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $10 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 94¢ $676 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $505 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1,437 21d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1,640 21d
Spread: Thunder (-14.5) BUY Thunder $15 22d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1,025 22d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1,025 22d
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) SELL Spurs $178 26d
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) SELL Spurs $102 26d
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) BUY Spurs $31 26d
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) BUY Spurs $82 26d
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) BUY Spurs $1 26d
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) BUY Spurs 10¢ $103 26d
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) BUY Spurs 10¢ $154 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,034.51 · official $9,034.51 (match) · 192 history records