Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:32:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa34d…28c6 crypto 1515 markets active 2d ago coverage 65d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 65d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$171 (-3%) realized −$171 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%303W / 1212L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day34.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$73
14 days−$141
30 days−$939
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$129
other 1% −$3
sports 0% +$90
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -67.2% -70.3% 11% 9% -73.8%
≤30d 789 -40.1% -45.8% 11% 11% -42.6%
≤90d 1515 +0.8% -8.8% 20% 20% -11.1%
all 1515 +0.8% -8.8% 20% 20% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.8% 20% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here -17.5% 20% -19.6%
15% -25.5% 20% -27.4%
20% -32.8% 20% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +60% → late -58% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$4 · ×3.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$171
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses303 / 1212
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1515 / 1515
History coverage65d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day34.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1515 Trades
no open positions (158 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -72%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $5 −$3 -53%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $2 $0 -16%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $1 +$2 +167%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$4 -94%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $3 −$1 -20%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $3 $0 +9%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $3 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 22 $3 +$10 +317%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $10 +$21 +199%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$17 +522%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$12 +312%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $3 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 2d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records