Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:46:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa34d…46f1 world 85 markets active 2h ago coverage 458d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$34 (-0%) realized −$36 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate35%29W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$144now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$16
14 days−$13
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 89% −$35
other 7% +$1
finance 2% −$1
politics 1% +$1
sports 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -7.7% -16.5% 0% 0% -11.5%
≤30d 32 -1.0% -10.4% 31% 6% -10.0%
≤90d 35 -0.9% -10.4% 31% 6% -9.9%
all 82 +0.2% -9.3% 35% 6% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 6% -9.8%
10% -18.0% 1% -18.5%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

458d coverage
Net worth$144
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses29 / 53
Open positions3
Markets (closed)82 / 85
History coverage458d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 46¢ 46¢ $142 $144 +$2 (+1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-65%)
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $131 −$2 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $144 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $131 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 16 $144 −$1 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $4 $0 -7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $130 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $28 −$13 -44%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $195 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $139 +$2 +2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 09 $13 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $154 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 08 $154 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $316 −$1 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $172 −$1 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $286 +$2 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $136 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $179 +$1 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $2,409 −$4 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $255 +$6 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 30 $307 −$1 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $236 −$1 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $236 −$29 -12%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $193 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 27 $143 −$7 -5%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 26 $42 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $131 +$1 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $10 +$1 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $141 +$4 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $36 +$8 +21%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 24 $2 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 22 $160 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $288 −$2 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 12 $1,013 +$1 +0%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 11 $1,014 −$1 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 11 $1,014 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 16 $27 $0 +0%
Will Girona FC win on 2025-12-21? Dec 15 $29 $0 +0%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 02 $9 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk create a new political party by July 4? Jul 04 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 04 $4 +$1 +16%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Jul 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 02 $12 $0 -1%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 02 $12 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times June 27–July 4? Jul 01 $1 $0 -5%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 01 $13 $0 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 27 $8 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 46¢ $142 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $19 11h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $110 11h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $131 12h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $144 14h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $144 14h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $131 32h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $131 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $104 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $27 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $130 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 39¢ $130 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 39¢ $66 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 39¢ $7 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 39¢ $58 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 10¢ $16 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 18¢ $7 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 18¢ $21 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 38¢ $36 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 38¢ $108 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 38¢ $144 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 99¢ $100 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 99¢ $42 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 97¢ $139 8d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 8d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 24¢ $12 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $143.69 · official $143.69 (match) · 310 history records