Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:58:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
A3 0xa34a…f51c sports 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$92 (-8%) realized −$97 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate78%21W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$18
14 days+$18
30 days+$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$98
crypto 29% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +14.4% +3.5% 100% 50% +2.9%
≤30d 6 +5.5% -4.5% 83% 50% +9.5%
≤90d 7 -9.6% -18.2% 71% 43% -5.3%
all 27 +2.1% -7.6% 78% 37% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 37% -18.5%
10% -16.5% 26% -26.3%
15% -24.5% 22% -33.4%
20% -31.9% 15% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% too few recent
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$29 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized−$97
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses21 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage115d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan India 87¢ 93¢ $77 $83 +$5 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $72 +$5 +6%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $60 +$14 +22%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $29 +$24 +82%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27? May 27 $27 $0 +1%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 26 $1 $0 +19%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Pakistan: Bangladesh vs Pakistan Apr 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 12PM ET Mar 13 $0 $0 -0%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Pakistan: Bangladesh vs Pakistan Mar 13 $20 +$10 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Mar 08 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Mar 08 $60 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Mar 08 $1 +$1 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Mar 08 $1 $0 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 11AM ET Mar 07 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 7? Mar 07 $58 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 7? Mar 07 $58 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 6? Mar 06 $52 +$6 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 6? Mar 06 $50 +$1 +3%
T20 World Cup: England vs India Mar 05 $202 +$4 +2%
T20 World Cup: South Africa vs New Zealand Mar 04 $5 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 9AM ET Mar 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 3? Mar 02 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 3AM ET Mar 02 $3 $0 +10%
T20 World Cup: India vs West Indies Mar 02 $32 +$12 +37%
T20 World Cup: Zimbabwe vs South Africa Mar 01 $5 $0 +7%
T20 World Cup: India vs South Africa Feb 22 $262 −$142 -54%
T20 World Cup: Sri Lanka vs England Feb 22 $1 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 87¢ $78 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan SELL India 100¢ $77 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY India 95¢ $50 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY India 91¢ $22 2d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 100¢ $74 3d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 80¢ $43 3d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 84¢ $17 3d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans SELL Royal Challengers Bengaluru 100¢ $52 16d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans BUY Royal Challengers Bengaluru 54¢ $29 16d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Sunrisers Hyderabad 1¢ $0 20d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Sunrisers Hyderabad 56¢ $2 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27? SELL Yes 100¢ $27 21d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans SELL Royal Challengers Bengaluru 100¢ $1 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27? BUY Yes 98¢ $27 21d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans BUY Royal Challengers Bengaluru 83¢ $1 21d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Pakistan: Bangladesh vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan 37¢ $10 93d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Pakistan: Bangladesh vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan 55¢ $20 94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 12PM ET SELL Up 9¢ $0 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 12PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $0 95d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Pakistan: Bangladesh vs Pakistan SELL Pakistan 80¢ $30 95d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Pakistan: Bangladesh vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan 53¢ $20 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $6 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $60 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $60 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $1 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 11AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $1 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 11AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 101d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.82 · official $82.82 (match) · 73 history records