Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:03:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa349…a150 world 221 markets active 0h ago coverage 111d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 111d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$262 (-8%) realized −$261 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate49%95W / 99L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day29.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$192now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$49
7 days−$49
14 days−$326
30 days−$329
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% −$296
politics 17% −$228
other 17% +$394
economics 3% +$139
culture 1% −$20
sports 0% +$15
tech 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)+9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -21.8% -29.2% 53% 13% -31.8%
≤30d 49 -30.1% -36.8% 29% 14% -35.7%
≤90d 92 +33.3% +20.6% 47% 22% -23.8%
all 194 +21.5% +9.9% 49% 20% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +9.9% 20% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -0.6% 14% -19.0%
15% -10.2% 11% -26.8%
20% -19.0% 10% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +30% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
8.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$8 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$192
Realized−$261
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses95 / 99
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions28
Markets (closed)194 / 221
History coverage111d ⚠
Avg bet$15
Trades / day29.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 194 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $64 $67 +$3 (+4%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 95¢ 99¢ $21 $22 +$1 (+5%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 97¢ 100¢ $11 $12 +$0 (+3%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 88¢ 86¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-3%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 38¢ 39¢ $8 $9 +$0 (+3%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 95¢ 99¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+4%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Yes 40¢ 34¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 84¢ 88¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? Yes 12¢ 31¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+155%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+25%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 47¢ 52¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+12%)
Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Derek Dooley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 71¢ 68¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Bahrain send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 70¢ 79¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+13%)
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in June 2026? Yes 42¢ 35¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? Yes 41¢ 44¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? No 82¢ 66¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-20%)
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? Yes 35¢ 36¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Gavin Newsom be arrested before 2027? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-25%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 54¢ 36¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-32%)
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30? Yes 15¢ 10¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-33%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 26¢ 18¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar) Jun 17 $0 −$31 -13104%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri Jun 16 $12 −$11 -98%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 14, 2026? Jun 15 $2 $0 +5%
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31? Jun 15 $11 −$1 -11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $11 +$4 +38%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $13 −$5 -42%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +25%
Will Trump announce Chris Stewart as the next Director of National Int Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
X banned in any European country by December 31? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -51%
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el Jun 10 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? Jun 08 $2 $0 +2%
AWS service disrupted by March 31? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Wrestlefest: Cody Rhodes vs. Randy Orton Jun 08 $11 +$15 +139%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8? Jun 08 $32 +$15 +46%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Jun 08 $2 −$1 -73%
Will Warsh say "Trump" during swearing-in? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting? Jun 08 $9 +$33 +351%
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by May 31? Jun 08 $5 −$2 -37%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Jun 08 $9 −$6 -62%
Will Trump post "POTUS" this week on Truth Social? Jun 08 $10 +$9 +90%
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 22, 202 Jun 08 $4 −$4 -92%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 08 $15 −$1 -8%
Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass? Jun 08 $19 −$10 -52%
Will Trump say "Nancy" or "Pelosi" this week? (March 22) Jun 08 $26 −$19 -72%
Will Trump act to ban mail-in voting or voting machines by June 30? Jun 08 $3 −$1 -41%
Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 7? Jun 08 $11 −$8 -69%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Jun 08 $10 −$2 -15%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6? Jun 08 $20 −$16 -81%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Jun 08 $34 −$31 -90%
BitBoy convicted? Jun 08 $50 −$39 -78%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Jun 08 $11 −$2 -19%
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026? Jun 08 $210 −$5 -2%
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? Jun 08 $9 −$4 -42%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 9? Jun 08 $41 +$41 +100%
Will Tisza win at least 130 seats? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump post "Make Iran Great Again" or "MIGA" on Truth Social this Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 18, 2026? Jun 08 $19 −$11 -59%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Jun 08 $122 $0 -0%
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump say "Third term" in March? Jun 08 $243 −$208 -86%
Will "Mobile Suit Gundam GQuuuuuuX" win Best Original Anime at the 202 Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 0m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 0m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 3m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 6m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 8m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 8m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 11m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 11m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 14m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 23m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 23m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 23m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 23m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 26m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 26m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $191.92 · official $191.63 (match) · 3500 history records