Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:04:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa345…b615 other 132 markets active 2h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$51 (-0%) realized −$51 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate16%21W / 110L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$165per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$15
14 days−$23
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% −$32
politics 25% −$10
sports 16% −$10
crypto 8% −$6
economics 7% −$6
culture 6% −$7
finance 3% +$6
tech 2% −$5
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -0.5% -10.0% 14% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 59 -0.6% -10.0% 14% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 111 -0.6% -10.1% 14% 0% -9.9%
all 131 -0.5% -10.0% 16% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses21 / 110
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)131 / 132
History coverage103d
Avg bet$165
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $61 $61 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $563 −$1 -0%
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 20 $56 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $261 −$4 -2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $39 +$1 +3%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $53 $0 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 18 $55 −$1 -2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 18 $193 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 18 $50 −$2 -3%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $99 −$2 -2%
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 17 $58 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $244 −$1 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 17 $61 −$1 -2%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $67 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $116 −$1 -1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $120 $0 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $226 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 15 $60 +$1 +2%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $68 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $278 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $55 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $306 $0 -0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $185 −$1 -0%
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $61 −$1 -1%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $151 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $115 −$1 -1%
Will Senegal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 12 $20 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 11 $39 $0 -1%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $675 −$1 -0%
Will Netherlands score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $44 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $86 $0 -0%
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 10 $93 −$1 -1%
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $52 −$1 -1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $45 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $54 −$2 -3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 06 $59 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 06 $44 $0 -1%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $62 $0 -1%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $46 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $49 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $105 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 03 $64 −$2 -2%
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $52 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $54 $0 -1%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 02 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $102 −$1 -1%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $235 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $264 −$3 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $167 −$1 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 31 $165 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026 BUY No 96¢ $61 1h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $51 2h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $51 7h
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $7 7h
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $7 13h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $56 14h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $56 19h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $51 20h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $52 28h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $40 28h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $39 36h
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $52 37h
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $53 43h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $54 44h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $55 2d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 98¢ $42 2d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $42 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL No 90¢ $48 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 92¢ $50 2d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $51 2d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $52 2d
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $57 2d
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $58 3d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $13 3d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $13 3d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 94¢ $59 3d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 96¢ $61 3d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $67 3d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $67 4d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.23 · official $61.23 (match) · 517 history records