Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:38:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
A3 0xa344…8141 world 513 markets active 1h ago coverage 223d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 223d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,795 (+4%) realized +$5,680 · open +$115
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate70%350W / 148L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$323per market
Trades / day14.6pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$2,342now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1,033
14 days+$1,128
30 days+$1,693
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% +$3,167
politics 27% +$447
other 18% +$1,026
sports 3% +$470
economics 2% +$9
crypto 0% +$84
tech 0% +$52
finance 0% −$15
culture 0% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)+2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +46.9% +32.9% 82% 73% +9.1%
≤30d 40 +35.3% +22.4% 62% 42% +6.8%
≤90d 218 +11.4% +0.8% 65% 27% -6.9%
all 498 +13.7% +2.9% 70% 27% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.9% 27% -6.6%
10% -7.0% 16% -15.6%
15% -16.0% 11% -23.7%
20% -24.2% 8% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +18% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$40 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.89 per $1 lost it wins $1.89
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

223d coverage
Net worth$2,342
Realized+$5,680
Unrealized+$115
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses350 / 148
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions15
Markets (closed)498 / 513
History coverage223d ⚠
Avg bet$323
Trades / day14.6
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 498 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 75¢ 90¢ $597 $724 +$127 (+21%)
Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 91¢ 96¢ $418 $440 +$22 (+5%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 97¢ 100¢ $420 $432 +$12 (+3%)
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $317 $321 +$4 (+1%)
Will USD reach 2.0M Iranian rials by June 30? No 89¢ 96¢ $116 $125 +$9 (+8%)
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? No 16¢ 18¢ $63 $70 +$7 (+11%)
U.S. issues passport with Trump's face on it by July 31? Yes 71¢ 74¢ $57 $60 +$3 (+5%)
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? Yes 70¢ 56¢ $70 $56 −$14 (-19%)
Trump meets with Putin by December 31? No 44¢ 62¢ $30 $41 +$12 (+38%)
Will Trump and Putin not meet? No 45¢ 38¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-17%)
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 24¢ 22¢ $24 $22 −$2 (-10%)
Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by June 30? Yes 37¢ 8¢ $41 $9 −$32 (-77%)
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Yes 19¢ 4¢ $39 $8 −$31 (-80%)
Will Trump dance during UFC Freedom 250? No 40¢ 95¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+138%)
US military draft authorized in 2026? No 75¢ 94¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $35 −$3 -8%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 17 $176 +$19 +11%
Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 17 $1,931 +$51 +3%
Will Donald Trump dance on June 14, 2026? Jun 15 $81 −$67 -82%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $678 +$372 +55%
Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 14 $162 +$80 +49%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $530 +$142 +27%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $381 +$208 +54%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 14 $1,013 +$167 +16%
Will any player score 40+ points in any game during the 2026 NBA Final Jun 14 $24 +$26 +106%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 11 $13 +$37 +285%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $134 +$66 +49%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 03 $245 +$51 +21%
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 3? Jun 03 $29 −$22 -75%
Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by May 31? Jun 02 $318 −$94 -30%
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by May 31? Jun 02 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Trump say "Golden Dome" in May? Jun 01 $9 −$8 -89%
Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by May 31? Jun 01 $7 +$86 +1264%
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026? May 31 $37 −$3 -9%
Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by May 31? May 30 $176 −$133 -75%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? May 29 $110 +$30 +27%
ECB rate hike in 2026? May 28 $105 +$3 +2%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? May 28 $10 $0 +3%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 26 $82 −$82 -100%
Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting? May 26 $7 −$2 -25%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? May 25 $161 +$16 +10%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 24 $83 +$17 +20%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 23 $1,370 +$715 +52%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? May 23 $97 −$2 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 23 $220 +$7 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $8 +$4 +53%
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on May 22? May 22 $143 −$110 -77%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? May 21 $186 +$1 +0%
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on May 20? May 21 $321 +$13 +4%
Will Trump say "Space Force" during Coast Guard event? May 20 $33 +$17 +52%
Will Trump say "Stock Market" during Coast Guard event? May 20 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Trump say "Ballroom" during Coast Guard event? May 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on May 19? May 20 $206 +$3 +2%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of May 19 $45 $0 +0%
Will USD reach 2.0M Iranian rials by May 31? May 18 $133 +$181 +136%
Will Pope Leo XIV publish his encyclical by May 15? May 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on May 16? May 15 $22 −$21 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 15 $566 +$171 +30%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 14 $818 −$32 -4%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 13 $234 +$148 +63%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? May 13 $395 −$13 -3%
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May? May 12 $162 +$11 +7%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in May 2026? May 12 $463 +$24 +5%
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on May 6? May 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on May 8? May 09 $583 +$11 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL No 32¢ $32 50m
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 24¢ $24 50m
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 36¢ $18 56m
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 34¢ $17 56m
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $79 1h
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY No 15¢ $15 1h
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY No 18¢ $4 1h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $12 1h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $4 1h
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY No 18¢ $5 1h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $4 1h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $19 1h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $80 1h
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY No 16¢ $16 1h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $48 1h
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY No 16¢ $10 1h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $61 1h
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY No 13¢ $10 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? SELL Yes 80¢ $60 3h
Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 91¢ $291 15h
Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 90¢ $19 16h
Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 90¢ $27 17h
Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 90¢ $81 17h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY Yes 79¢ $59 17h
Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by June 30? BUY Yes 98¢ $196 23h
Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by June 30? BUY Yes 99¢ $396 23h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? BUY Yes 70¢ $70 23h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 97¢ $275 23h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 96¢ $146 23h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? SELL Yes 90¢ $62 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,341.74 · official $2,341.65 (match) · 3500 history records