Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:49:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

A3 0xa341…3311 crypto 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$10 (-2%) realized −$7 · open −$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip

Net edge-37%after slip

Net WR39%break-even

Win rate39%7W / 11L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$22per market

Trades / day9.5pace

Fees−$4est.

Kalshi-fit95%portable

Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +39%

net ROI/market (all)-31.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	18	-24.2%	-31.5%	39%	39%	-25.6%
≤30d	18	-24.2%	-31.5%	39%	39%	-25.6%
≤90d	18	-24.2%	-31.5%	39%	39%	-25.6%
all	18	-24.2%	-31.5%	39%	39%	-25.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover9.5 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-31.5%	39%	-25.6%
10%	-38.0%	39%	-32.7%
15%	-44.0%	39%	-39.2%
20%	-49.5%	33%	-45.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 31% · top 2 56% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -24% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +52% → late -100% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$19 vs −$18 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.66 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$107

Realized−$7

Unrealized−$3

Win rate (resolved)39%

Wins / losses7 / 11

Est. fees paid−$4

Open positions4

Markets (closed)18 / 22

History coverage3d

Avg bet$22

Trades / day9.5

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 18 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	Over	55¢	50¢	$50	$46	−$4 (-8%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5	Over	52¢	52¢	$25	$25	−$0 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	Yes	49¢	48¢	$25	$25	−$0 (-1%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	Portugal	52¢	60¢	$10	$12	+$2 (+16%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Jun 17	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Jun 17	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Jun 17	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Jun 17	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Jun 17	$11	−$11	-100%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	Jun 17	$26	−$26	-100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 17	$89	−$89	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Jun 17	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Jun 17	$26	−$25	-98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score	Jun 17	$5	+$6	+119%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$51	+$41	+80%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$51	+$33	+65%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$50	+$23	+46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Jun 16	$10	+$12	+117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Jun 16	$2	+$2	+105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Jun 16	$10	+$14	+133%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	52¢	$25	56m
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	49¢	$25	1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	BUY Portugal	52¢	$10	1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	55¢	$51	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	BUY Down	68¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	BUY Down	30¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	BUY Down	50¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	BUY Up	47¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	BUY Down	19¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	BUY Down	34¢	$5	1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	58¢	$25	12h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	45¢	$5	14h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	52¢	$25	14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	BUY Down	30¢	$5	24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	BUY Up	40¢	$5	24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$5	24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	BUY Down	10¢	$5	24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	BUY Up	47¢	$2	24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$5	24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	BUY Down	16¢	$5	24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	BUY Down	17¢	$5	24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$24	24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	BUY Down	35¢	$5	24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	BUY Down	49¢	$5	24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	68¢	$50	25h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	BUY Yes	21¢	$26	25h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	60¢	$51	25h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	48¢	$89	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.05 · official $109.06 · 45 history records