Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:03:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa33d…eabe politics 158 markets active 1h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$110 (-0%) realized −$105 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate17%26W / 130L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,024per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$364now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$60
14 days−$94
30 days−$440
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$64
politics 42% −$166
sports 6% +$98
economics 2% −$7
world 1% −$7
culture 1% −$3
crypto 1% $0
finance 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 63 -5.5% -14.5% 5% 3% -9.8%
≤90d 119 -9.7% -18.3% 8% 4% -9.9%
all 156 +2.2% -7.5% 17% 13% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.5% 13% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -16.4% 12% -18.2%
15% -24.5% 9% -26.1%
20% -31.9% 9% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,949) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +9% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$12 · ×4.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$364
Realized−$105
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses26 / 130
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)156 / 158
History coverage122d
Avg bet$2,024
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 156 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $313 $314 +$0 (+0%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Tampa Bay Rays 43¢ 38¢ $56 $50 −$6 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $3,923 −$6 -0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $1,207 −$2 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $2,653 −$3 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $2,754 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $4,173 −$6 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $4,333 −$6 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $12,343 −$13 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $1,241 −$2 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $2,812 −$4 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $2,346 −$4 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $2,827 −$4 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $3,898 −$5 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $2,369 −$4 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,307 −$2 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $1,144 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $3,202 −$3 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $2,961 −$5 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $5,291 −$6 -0%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $75 +$76 +101%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $2,208 −$3 -0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 05 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $5,911 −$6 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $1,168 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $4,102 −$5 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $3,244 −$4 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,379 −$3 -0%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Lavked (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group St Jun 02 $55 −$55 -100%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 02 $823 +$2 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $1,087 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $4,151 −$5 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $3,993 −$4 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $902 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 30 $2,920 −$4 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $4,158 −$5 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $1,199 −$2 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $989 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $4,399 −$5 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 29 $1,218 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $1,000 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $2,747 −$3 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 28 $1,065 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $1,066 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 26 $1,382 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $2,949 −$4 -0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $85 +$53 +62%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $1,620 −$2 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $4,435 −$3 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 24 $1,333 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $4,148 −$4 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,238 50m
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,240 1h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,206 2h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,207 5h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,323 23h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,325 25h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,347 29h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,349 31h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,253 47h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,255 2d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,480 2d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,482 2d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $892 2d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $894 3d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,240 5d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,241 5d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,347 5d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,349 5d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,286 5d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,288 6d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,333 6d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,336 6d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,330 6d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,332 6d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,185 6d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,187 7d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,305 7d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,307 7d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,142 7d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,144 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $363.62 · official $363.62 (match) · 640 history records