Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:18:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa33d…3ef2 weather 1569 markets active 4h ago coverage 50d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 49d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$98 (+1%) realized +$212 · open −$114
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate58%890W / 645L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day38.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$894now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$69
7 days+$19
14 days+$41
30 days−$157
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 90% −$171
politics 6% −$60
other 2% −$93
world 2% −$27
finance 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 +4.3% -5.6% 78% 60% -2.6%
≤30d 941 -5.8% -14.8% 62% 48% -12.6%
≤90d 1535 -6.4% -15.3% 58% 42% -12.6%
all 1535 -6.4% -15.3% 58% 42% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.3% 42% -12.6%
10% ← realistic here -23.4% 34% -21.0%
15% -30.8% 27% -28.6%
20% -37.6% 19% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$894
Realized+$212
Unrealized−$114
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses890 / 645
Open positions59
Markets (closed)1535 / 1569
History coverage50d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day38.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 59 History 1535 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 26? No 69¢ 99¢ $45 $64 +$19 (+42%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 26? No 66¢ 100¢ $40 $61 +$21 (+52%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 26? No 51¢ 100¢ $30 $59 +$29 (+96%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 26? No 77¢ 100¢ $40 $52 +$12 (+30%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 27? No 72¢ 80¢ $45 $50 +$5 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on June 27? No 76¢ 87¢ $35 $40 +$5 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 26? No 76¢ 100¢ $30 $39 +$9 (+32%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 27? No 67¢ 66¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 26? No 73¢ 68¢ $40 $37 −$3 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 27? No 75¢ 68¢ $40 $36 −$4 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 26? No 64¢ 57¢ $40 $36 −$4 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 27? No 71¢ 72¢ $35 $36 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 27? No 77¢ 64¢ $40 $33 −$7 (-17%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 26? No 77¢ 60¢ $40 $31 −$9 (-21%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes 66¢ 16¢ $101 $25 −$76 (-75%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 26? No 66¢ 58¢ $25 $22 −$3 (-11%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 59¢ 62¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 26? No 65¢ 60¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 26? No 65¢ 59¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 75¢ 99¢ $12 $16 +$4 (+32%)
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay No 79¢ 84¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+7%)
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? Yes 34¢ 18¢ $25 $13 −$12 (-47%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 27? No 63¢ 80¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+26%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 26? No 68¢ 74¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on June 27? No 73¢ 71¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 53 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 26 $18 −$19 -104%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 26 $38 −$61 -163%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 25? Jun 26 $25 +$9 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 25? Jun 26 $40 +$12 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 25? Jun 26 $30 +$13 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 25? Jun 25 $36 +$17 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 25? Jun 25 $15 +$8 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 25? Jun 25 $41 +$13 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 25? Jun 25 $31 +$19 +62%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 25? Jun 25 $41 +$15 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 25? Jun 25 $15 +$9 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 24? Jun 25 $30 +$9 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 24? Jun 25 $36 +$14 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 24? Jun 25 $20 +$8 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 15°C on June 24? Jun 25 $36 +$19 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 24? Jun 24 $30 +$11 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 24? Jun 24 $22 +$10 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 24? Jun 24 $20 +$9 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 24? Jun 24 $10 +$3 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 24? Jun 24 $20 +$12 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 25? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 25? Jun 24 $41 −$40 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 25? Jun 24 $25 −$25 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 23? Jun 24 $10 +$7 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 23? Jun 24 $15 +$9 +58%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 24 $10 +$5 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 25? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 23? Jun 23 $30 +$14 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 23? Jun 23 $20 +$10 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 23? Jun 23 $25 +$9 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 23? Jun 23 $20 +$10 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 22? Jun 23 $10 +$5 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 24? Jun 23 $25 −$25 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 24? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 23 $10 +$6 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 22? Jun 23 $10 +$3 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 22? Jun 22 $10 +$5 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? Jun 22 $10 +$6 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 22? Jun 22 $10 +$5 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 22? Jun 22 $10 +$5 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 22? Jun 22 $10 +$6 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $10 +$5 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 23? Jun 22 $25 −$25 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 23? Jun 22 $25 −$25 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 23? Jun 22 $10 +$6 +57%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 22? Jun 22 $10 +$4 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 23? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 27? BUY No 71¢ $36 3h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 27? BUY No 75¢ $40 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 27? BUY No 67¢ $41 3h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on June 27? BUY No 76¢ $35 15h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 26? BUY No 77¢ $40 22h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 26? BUY No 64¢ $41 22h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 26? BUY No 73¢ $41 22h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 26? BUY No 66¢ $25 22h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 26? BUY No 68¢ $10 22h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 26? BUY No 65¢ $5 22h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 26? BUY No 65¢ $20 22h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 65¢ $20 22h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 27? BUY No 72¢ $46 23h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 27? BUY No 63¢ $10 23h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on June 27? BUY No 73¢ $10 23h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 26? BUY No 72¢ $20 27h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 26? BUY No 76¢ $51 27h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 26? BUY No 71¢ $1 27h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 26? BUY No 69¢ $46 27h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 26? BUY No 76¢ $30 27h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 26? BUY No 51¢ $31 27h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 26? BUY No 58¢ $15 27h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 26? BUY No 62¢ $10 27h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 26? BUY No 77¢ $40 27h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 27? BUY No 77¢ $40 28h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 25? BUY No 76¢ $40 43h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 25? BUY No 73¢ $25 43h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 25? BUY No 60¢ $20 43h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 25? BUY No 69¢ $30 43h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 25? BUY No 67¢ $41 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $894.18 · official $898.47 (match) · 3500 history records