Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T23:14:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa339…4271 crypto 137 markets active 2h ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$210 (-1%) realized −$210 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate45%61W / 76L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$345
7 days−$340
14 days−$340
30 days−$340
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$331
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 -11.3% -19.7% 29% 3% -14.2%
≤30d 86 -11.3% -19.7% 29% 3% -14.2%
≤90d 86 -11.3% -19.7% 29% 3% -14.2%
all 137 -7.8% -16.6% 45% 10% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 10% -11.7%
10% -24.6% 5% -20.1%
15% -31.9% 4% -27.8%
20% -38.5% 4% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
13.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$11 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$210
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses61 / 76
Open positions0
Markets (closed)137 / 137
History coverage169d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 137 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 28 $52 −$19 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 28 $96 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 28 $96 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 28 $20 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 28 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 28 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 28 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 28 $72 −$72 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 28 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 28 $60 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 28 $10 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 28 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 28 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 28 $74 −$5 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 28 $67 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 28 $15 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 28 $41 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 28 $68 −$8 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 28 $54 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 28 $57 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 28 $39 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 28 $67 −$4 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 28 $36 −$3 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 28 $70 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 28 $11 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 28 $20 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 28 $47 −$6 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 28 $39 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 28 $57 −$4 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 28 $19 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 28 $74 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 28 $33 −$4 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 28 $57 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 28 $35 −$5 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 28 $163 −$3 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 28 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 28 $31 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 28 $14 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 28 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 28 $21 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 28 $8 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 28 $12 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 28 $28 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 28 $24 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 28 $71 −$6 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 28 $40 −$2 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $57 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $1 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2076 history records