Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T07:59:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A3
0xa338…2aca
sports · 156 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$81 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$80 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$50
Realized−$80
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses71 / 82
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions3
Markets (closed)153 / 156
Avg bet$11
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 3 History 153 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$18
14 days−$12
30 days−$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Knicks vs. Spurs Knicks 36¢ 36¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 50¢ 48¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 FURIA 59¢ 60¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 52¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 paiN 20¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Donstu Esports vs GenOne (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Closed Qualifier Group A Donstu Esports 11¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on March 29? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Gentle Mates 59¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 27? Up 7¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Liquid (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B 3DMAX 56¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage TheMongolz 53¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 G2 53¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Team Falcons 72¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Playoffs Natus Vincere 17¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: M80 vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A M80 19¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A TYLOO 37¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
ITF Wuning: Varvara Panshina vs Kira Pavlova Kira Pavlova 29¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: B8 vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A BC.Game Esports 40¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage PARIVISION 26¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Astralis 44¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Shanghai" during events with Xi Jinping? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs Team Falcons 39¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 paiN 47¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Heroic 59¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Madison Keys vs Diana Shnaider Madison Keys 52¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $39 +$22 +56%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $12 +$5 +42%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $28 +$24 +86%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $92 +$3 +3%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $12 −$9 -79%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $31 −$6 -21%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $26 +$4 +15%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $24 −$11 -46%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 11 $10 $0 -0%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $7 +$7 +96%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $26 +$27 +102%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $20 +$7 +36%
LoL: FN Esports vs Verdant (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 09 $10 $0 -2%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 09 $10 $0 -5%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $31 −$31 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $31 −$14 -45%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $5 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $29 +$34 +115%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $10 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $18 −$18 -99%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $10 +$8 +82%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 07 $10 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $13 −$13 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $15 −$1 -6%
Rainbow Six Siege: TYLOO vs Kingzone (BO3) - CN League Stage 1 Group S Jun 07 $14 +$15 +104%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $6 −$6 -99%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $17 −$4 -26%
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty Jun 07 $13 −$13 -99%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $15 +$18 +119%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $10 +$15 +146%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $16 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $33 −$3 -10%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $29 +$11 +38%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $10 +$5 +48%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $10 +$1 +13%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $25 −$15 -60%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $10 $0 -4%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $15 +$12 +78%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 06 $12 +$10 +81%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 06 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Vanuatu win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $6 +$7 +107%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $39 +$12 +32%
Connecticut Sun vs. Chicago Sky Jun 06 $14 +$9 +67%
ITF Wuning: Varvara Panshina vs Kira Pavlova Jun 02 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in June? Jun 02 $7 +$9 +134%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 82% −$83
other 8% +$21
world 3% −$2
crypto 3% +$10
politics 2% −$21
finance 0% +$1
tech 0% −$1
weather 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $21 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 4h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $21 4h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 93¢ $20 4h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 81¢ $40 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 59¢ $10 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $19 7h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $9 15h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 66¢ $8 16h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 63¢ $10 17h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Vitality 100¢ $18 17h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Vitality 87¢ $16 17h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL FUT Esports 14¢ $6 17h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY FUT Esports 22¢ $9 18h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY B8 27¢ $10 18h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $12 18h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Legacy 10¢ $3 18h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Vitality 73¢ $59 18h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Vitality 58¢ $24 19h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $24 19h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Vitality 80¢ $32 19h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL FUT Esports 21¢ $11 19h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY FUT Esports 18¢ $10 19h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 6¢ $30 20h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL PARIVISION 5¢ $1 20h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 45¢ $12 21h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 53¢ $12 21h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 46¢ $12 21h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $10 28h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 4¢ $12 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -2.7% -12.0% 44% 42% -7.7%
≤30d 89 -10.3% -18.8% 46% 43% -13.5%
≤90d 125 -18.7% -26.5% 43% 39% -15.7%
all 153 -9.4% -18.0% 46% 42% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 42% -13.9%
10% -25.9% 37% -22.2%
15% -33.0% 29% -29.7%
20% -39.6% 22% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.79 · official $49.79 (match) · 348 history records