Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:09:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A3
0xa336…43f1
weather · 782 markets active 1h ago
1.5score
+$345 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$346 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$20
Realized+$346
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses282 / 499
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)781 / 782
History coverage128d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 1 History 781 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$98
14 days+$85
30 days+$103
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Scotland 37¢ 36¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 20? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 10? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 10? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 21? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on May 21? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Exact Score: AFC Bournemouth 2 - 2 Manchester City FC? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 13? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 8? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 11? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on May 30? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 26? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on May 13? Yes 53¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 8? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 6? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 10? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 15? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 10? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 12? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on May 26? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 25? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 6? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on May 21? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on May 28? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C on May 27? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $51 −$24 -46%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $10 −$5 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +115%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 +$4 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$56 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $31 +$46 +152%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $27 −$14 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 −$4 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $21 +$26 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $21 −$20 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $12 −$12 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $201 −$99 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $21 −$3 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$37 +358%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$12 +116%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$15 +143%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 −$9 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$17 +161%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$2 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 +$5 +91%
Exact Score: China PR 0 - 0 Thailand? Jun 09 $20 +$56 +272%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 −$5 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 +$49 +472%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 −$9 -84%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 228.5 Jun 09 $10 +$9 +90%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 +$5 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 8? Jun 08 $10 +$5 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 8? Jun 08 $10 +$20 +198%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 91% +$349
sports 5% −$64
other 2% +$64
crypto 2% +$6
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 24¢ $27 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 13¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 12h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 12h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? BUY Yes 62¢ $7 12h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 37¢ $20 16h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $10 16h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $51 16h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 23h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 24h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $31 35h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 35h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 44h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 12? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 44h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 44h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 45h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 12? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 46h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 46h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 46h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 47h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? SELL Yes 13¢ $12 2d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 17¢ $16 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 11? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 11? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 11? BUY Yes 43¢ $21 2d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 11? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 11? BUY Yes 55¢ $12 2d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 41¢ $103 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -8.9% -17.6% 30% 30% +2.0%
≤30d 207 -11.7% -20.1% 30% 30% -4.4%
≤90d 776 -6.6% -15.5% 36% 35% -5.2%
all 781 -6.1% -15.0% 36% 35% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 35% -4.8%
10% -23.2% 35% -13.9%
15% -30.6% 34% -22.3%
20% -37.4% 32% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.73 · official $19.73 (match) · 1544 history records