Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T00:13:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa336…d32e crypto 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (61 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$17 (+2%) realized +$0 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR77%break-even
Win rate77%10W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day61.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$217now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% −$31
sports 22% +$50
other 11% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (61 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +77%
net ROI/market (all)+5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +16.1% +5.1% 77% 77% -10.3%
≤30d 13 +16.1% +5.1% 77% 77% -10.3%
≤90d 13 +16.1% +5.1% 77% 77% -10.3%
all 13 +16.1% +5.1% 77% 77% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover61.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +5.1% 77% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -5.0% 54% -18.9%
15% -14.2% 38% -26.8%
20% -22.6% 31% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 45% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$54 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$217
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses10 / 3
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)13 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day61.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Toronto Blue Jays 63¢ 79¢ $100 $125 +$25 (+25%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $100 $91 −$9 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $101 +$25 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $49 −$11 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $19 +$17 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $17 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$4 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$4 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $129 −$129 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $225 +$44 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$26 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$22 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 63¢ $101 8m
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Iraq 94¢ $125 15m
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Iraq 75¢ $101 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $14 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $19 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $16 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 50m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $216.56 · official $216.56 (match) · 73 history records