Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:58:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa335…5fb3 crypto 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$36 (-1%) realized −$104 · open +$68
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate58%23W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$287now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$465
7 days+$605
14 days+$605
30 days−$137
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% −$560
other 18% +$137
sports 5% +$40
world 4% +$383
tech 2% −$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +91.6% +73.4% 80% 80% +96.9%
≤30d 40 -4.0% -13.1% 58% 38% -12.7%
≤90d 40 -4.0% -13.1% 58% 38% -12.7%
all 40 -4.0% -13.1% 58% 38% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 38% -12.7%
10% -21.5% 32% -21.1%
15% -29.0% 20% -28.7%
20% -36.0% 15% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$75 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$287
Realized−$104
Unrealized+$68
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses23 / 17
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)40 / 43
History coverage28d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 13¢ $130 $199 +$69 (+53%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $65 $64 −$0 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $209 +$91 +44%
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $31 −$11 -37%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $153 +$386 +252%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $48 +$14 +30%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $74 +$126 +170%
LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 29 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 29 $102 +$43 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 29 $152 +$39 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 29 $52 +$11 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 29 $200 +$2 +1%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $101 +$33 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 28 $30 −$29 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 28 $17 +$11 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET May 28 $77 −$75 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 28 $132 −$132 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 28 $102 +$30 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 28 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET May 28 $101 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 28 $201 +$16 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 27 $31 −$30 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 27 $63 −$60 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 27 $31 +$54 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 27 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 27 $61 −$16 -27%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 27 $10 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET May 27 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 27 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 27 $59 −$56 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET May 27 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET May 27 $41 +$4 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET May 27 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 26 $137 +$11 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET May 26 $302 +$12 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 26 $415 −$400 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 26 $104 +$118 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 22 $88 −$35 -40%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET May 22 $58 +$109 +190%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 22 $153 −$150 -98%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on May 21? May 21 $71 −$69 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 21 $55 +$5 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $25 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $66 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $209 43h
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $19 45h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $539 45h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $62 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $200 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $74 6d
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $47 6d
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 7d
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $31 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $153 16d
LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 93¢ $100 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $102 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $102 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $51 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $34 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $29 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 19d
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY T1 75¢ $101 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $30 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $17 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $51 21d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $27 21d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $53 21d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $53 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $286.87 · official $286.87 (match) · 132 history records