Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:33:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
A3 0xa334…e0a9 other 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 620d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate29%17W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$315per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 73% −$14
politics 15% −$8
other 9% $0
crypto 1% +$1
sports 1% +$7
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 67% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 11 -9.2% -17.8% 18% 0% -12.3%
≤90d 45 +6.2% -3.9% 31% 20% -9.2%
all 58 +4.6% -5.3% 29% 16% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.3% 16% -9.6%
10% -14.4% 14% -18.2%
15% -22.7% 14% -26.1%
20% -30.2% 12% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

620d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses17 / 41
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage620d
Avg bet$315
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $11 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? Jun 13 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 13 $34 $0 +0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $13 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $101 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 26 $19 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $10 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $15 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 21 $13 $0 -0%
Will Liaoning Tieren FC win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi May 20 $16 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $89 $0 -0%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 18 $11 +$2 +21%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $82 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $83 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $87 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $173 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $86 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $86 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $85 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $87 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $89 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 24 $88 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $90 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $85 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $92 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $89 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $90 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $92 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 18 $93 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $91 $0 -0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $8 +$5 +60%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $6 +$11 +172%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $11 +$8 +72%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $12 +$6 +52%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 07 $8 +$9 +105%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $16 +$2 +10%
Flames vs. Golden Knights Apr 06 $7 +$3 +45%
76ers vs. Hornets Apr 02 $32 −$32 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Devils Apr 02 $21 −$21 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch? Apr 02 $22 +$1 +4%
Will Solana reach $160 in March? Apr 02 $44 $0 +0%
Raptors vs. Clippers Mar 28 $33 +$20 +61%
UFC Fight Night: Mason Jones vs. Axel Sola (Lightweight, Prelims) Mar 25 $15 +$12 +79%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $20 in February? Mar 05 $83 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 13 $83 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 31 $13,515 −$14 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 10 $9 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $54 1h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $11 3d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $11 3d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $13 20d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 20d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $13 21d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $13 21d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $19 22d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $19 22d
Will Solana reach $110 in May? BUY No 100¢ $21 22d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 23d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 23d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $15 26d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $15 26d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $34 26d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? SELL No 100¢ $13 27d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 100¢ $13 27d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 99¢ $16 28d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $16 28d
Will Liaoning Tieren FC win on 2026-05-20? BUY No 56¢ $8 28d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $89 30d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $89 30d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $82 36d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $82 36d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Thunder 82¢ $11 37d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $83 37d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $83 37d
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $87 40d
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $87 40d
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $83 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.11 · official $54.11 (match) · 275 history records