Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:50:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A3
0xa332…29be
world · 103 markets active 2h ago
2.0score
+$99 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$98 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$240
Realized+$98
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses29 / 70
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions4
Markets (closed)99 / 103
History coverage300d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 4 History 99 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$14
14 days+$14
30 days+$135
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 93¢ $237 $237 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 86¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 89¢ 84¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Yes 94¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Yes 61¢ 81¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+33%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $83 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $11 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $101 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $378 +$1 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $558 +$1 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $243 +$13 +5%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $227 −$2 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $452 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $227 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $40 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $219 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 27 $227 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $401 +$1 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $227 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $408 −$2 -1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 24 $4 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $148 +$103 +70%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $143 +$5 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $143 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 23 $267 −$5 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 18 $98 +$23 +23%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 18 $120 −$1 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $116 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 18 $111 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $112 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 15 $2 $0 +7%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $5 −$3 -61%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? May 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $243 −$1 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $482 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $346 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $17 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $468 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $117 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $229 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $113 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $58 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $49 −$2 -4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 19 $116 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $115 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 18 $116 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 16 $116 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $117 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 15 $127 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $155 $0 +0%
Will Tyrrell Hatton win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 14 $167 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $209 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 13 $113 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $233 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $232 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 41% +$125
other 20% +$9
politics 16% −$1
sports 14% +$2
economics 5% $0
finance 2% −$5
crypto 1% −$33
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $18 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $219 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 24¢ $83 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 24¢ $83 3h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 10h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $7 12h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 12h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $11 13h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $28 46h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $20 46h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $28 46h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $14 46h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $90 46h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 37¢ $101 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 37¢ $101 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 61¢ $106 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 61¢ $3 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 61¢ $125 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 61¢ $4 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 61¢ $6 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 61¢ $223 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $14 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $19 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $9 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $75 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $101 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $184 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $257 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.6% -8.9% 38% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 27 +1.7% -8.0% 37% 7% -7.1%
≤90d 78 +0.7% -8.9% 28% 4% -8.8%
all 99 +0.5% -9.0% 29% 3% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 3% -8.8%
10% -17.7% 3% -17.5%
15% -25.7% 2% -25.5%
20% -33.0% 2% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $239.85 · official $237.24 · 504 history records