trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +5.2% | -4.8% | 100% | 0% | -4.2% |
| ≤30d | 3 | +6.7% | -3.5% | 100% | 0% | -2.6% |
| ≤90d | 9 | -6.0% | -14.9% | 67% | 22% | +133.6% |
| all | 22 | -2.1% | -11.4% | 45% | 18% | +19.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -11.4% | 18% | +19.5% |
| 10% | -19.9% | 18% | +8.1% |
| 15% | -27.6% | 18% | -2.3% |
| 20% | -34.7% | 18% | -11.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 90¢ | 87¢ | $20 | $19 | −$1 (-3%) |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 72¢ | 95¢ | $14 | $19 | +$4 (+31%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? | Jun 22 | $20 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? | Jun 22 | $28 | +$3 | +9% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June | Jun 09 | $43 | +$4 | +10% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? | May 23 | $19 | $0 | +2% |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | Apr 23 | $8 | −$8 | -99% |
| Pelicans vs. Pistons | Apr 01 | $6 | +$4 | +54% |
| Wizards vs. Jazz | Mar 26 | $1,998 | +$3,402 | +170% |
| Raptors vs. Clippers | Mar 25 | $8 | −$8 | -100% |
| Hurricanes vs. Canadiens | Mar 24 | $11 | −$11 | -100% |
| Raptors vs. Suns | Mar 21 | $11 | −$11 | -100% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m | Mar 06 | $59 | $0 | +0% |
| Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Mar 06 | $59 | $0 | -0% |
| Heat vs. 76ers | Feb 27 | $728 | +$572 | +79% |
| Kings vs. Mavericks | Feb 26 | $1,224 | −$1,224 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? | Feb 25 | $61 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me | Feb 09 | $63 | −$2 | -3% |
| Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? | Feb 07 | $63 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in January? | Feb 03 | $63 | $0 | +0% |
| Rangers vs. Flyers | Jan 26 | $17 | +$23 | +133% |
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jan 17 | $2,005 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Jan 17 | $36 | $0 | -0% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? | Jan 16 | $2,007 | −$2 | -0% |