Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:49:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

A3 0xa32f…28bc other 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$797 (-41%) realized −$799 · open +$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip

Net edge-22%after slip

Net WR40%break-even

Win rate40%6W / 9L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$102per market

Trades / day9.3pace

Fees−$4est.

Kalshi-fit47%portable

Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +40%

net ROI/market (all)-15.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	15	-6.9%	-15.7%	40%	40%	-49.3%
≤30d	15	-6.9%	-15.7%	40%	40%	-49.3%
≤90d	15	-6.9%	-15.7%	40%	40%	-49.3%
all	15	-6.9%	-15.7%	40%	40%	-49.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover9.3 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-15.7%	40%	-49.3%
10%	-23.8%	33%	-54.2%
15%	-31.2%	27%	-58.6%
20%	-37.9%	7%	-62.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 47% · top 2 78% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -44% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -7% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -71% → late +49% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$51 vs −$124 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.27 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$74

Realized−$799

Unrealized+$2

Win rate (resolved)40%

Wins / losses6 / 9

Est. fees paid−$4

Open positions4

Markets (closed)15 / 19

History coverage3d

Avg bet$102

Trades / day9.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 15 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	Yes	24¢	24¢	$32	$31	−$1 (-2%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	80¢	90¢	$20	$23	+$3 (+13%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	95¢	97¢	$10	$10	+$0 (+3%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	79¢	78¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$51	−$2	-4%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$50	+$20	+40%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw?	Jun 17	$20	−$20	-98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Jun 17	$21	+$1	+6%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Jun 17	$20	+$97	+474%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$71	+$32	+46%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$50	+$12	+24%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	Jun 16	$11	−$11	-98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$353	+$143	+40%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 16	$71	−$70	-99%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	Jun 16	$28	−$27	-98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$122	−$119	-97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$192	−$69	-36%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$303	−$300	-99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$501	−$500	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$12	47m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	62¢	$49	48m
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$20	1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$51	1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet	BUY Yes	79¢	$10	1h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	20¢	$20	16h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	71¢	$50	16h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	SELL Yes	34¢	$21	16h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	16¢	$21	17h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June	BUY Yes	95¢	$10	25h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	BUY No	80¢	$20	26h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	BUY Yes	14¢	$11	40h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	80¢	$50	40h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	17¢	$20	40h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$71	40h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	BUY Yes	21¢	$28	40h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	68¢	$71	40h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$98	40h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	99¢	$194	41h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	82¢	$106	41h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	13¢	$1	2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	33¢	$122	2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	41¢	$123	2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$353	2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	62¢	$192	2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	68¢	$303	2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	92¢	$501	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.00 · official $74.00 (match) · 32 history records