Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:46:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa32c…54a3 other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 25d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$2 (-7%) realized +$3 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$4
sports 11% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -19.0% -26.7% 50% 0% -28.4%
≤30d 5 -12.9% -21.2% 40% 20% -18.9%
≤90d 5 -12.9% -21.2% 40% 20% -18.9%
all 5 -12.9% -21.2% 40% 20% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.2% 20% -18.9%
10% -28.8% 20% -26.7%
15% -35.6% 20% -33.8%
20% -42.0% 20% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage25d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 65¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$2 -39%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $4 −$3 -80%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $4 +$6 +153%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 21 $3 −$3 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 25h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 25h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 33h
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 21d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? SELL Yes 12¢ $10 21d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 22d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 22d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs BUY Team Falcons 54¢ $3 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 11 history records