Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:04:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa32c…12eb other 248 markets active 1h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$82 (-0%) realized −$82 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%13W / 234L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$223per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$20
14 days−$27
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$42
sports 24% −$19
culture 8% −$9
politics 7% −$9
crypto 5% −$9
economics 5% −$4
world 3% −$1
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 66 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 174 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 247 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses13 / 234
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)247 / 248
History coverage137d
Avg bet$223
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 247 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? No 99¢ 99¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 19 $472 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $540 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 19 $316 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $648 −$2 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $57 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $246 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $273 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $341 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $524 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $327 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $422 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $258 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $227 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $207 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $374 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $572 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $791 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $159 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $540 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $230 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $556 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $222 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $693 −$2 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $412 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $566 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $59 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 13 $524 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $190 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $141 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $528 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $374 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $138 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $61 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $61 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $420 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $216 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $581 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $658 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $600 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $311 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $217 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $235 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $470 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $539 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $571 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $307 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 03 $134 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $148 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 01 $451 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $375 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $56 1h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $56 2h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 3h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $56 5h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $56 6h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $56 8h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $56 10h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 17h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 18h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $57 27h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $57 29h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $57 37h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $57 39h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $57 39h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $57 41h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 45h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 47h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $57 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $57 2d
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 2d
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $57 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.15 · official $56.15 (match) · 1405 history records