Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:43:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa328…42ab other 55 markets active 2d ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$33 (-14%) realized −$23 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%16W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$20
14 days−$19
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% −$13
crypto 17% −$19
world 5% −$7
sports 4% +$7
politics 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -17.1% -25.0% 47% 47% -32.4%
≤30d 22 -4.3% -13.4% 55% 55% -17.6%
≤90d 38 +17.2% +6.1% 42% 42% -22.8%
all 38 +17.2% +6.1% 42% 42% -22.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.1% 42% -22.8%
10% -4.1% 39% -30.2%
15% -13.3% 34% -37.0%
20% -21.8% 26% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +52% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$23
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses16 / 22
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions17
Markets (closed)38 / 55
History coverage39d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-25%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 44¢ 40¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 18¢ 10¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-47%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 10¢ 4¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-57%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Jordan Bardella be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election? Yes 84¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-40%)
Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-58%)
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-67%)
Jacob Elordi announced as next James Bond? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +34%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +40%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +97%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +87%
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +49%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
James Norton announced as next James Bond? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -56%
No one announced as next James Bond? Jun 04 $1 $0 +19%
Theo James announced as next James Bond? Jun 04 $1 +$1 +99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $5 +$3 +65%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $2 +$26 +1246%
Will Bulgaria be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 17 $1 +$4 +338%
Will Bulgaria win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 17 $2 +$4 +195%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $24 −$23 -97%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $6 −$6 -96%
Will France be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Australia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping? May 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 11 $1 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 11 $11 −$6 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 07 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 07 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 07 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $3 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 79¢ $5 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 5d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 70¢ $2 5d
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 74¢ $5 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 13d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 13d
James Norton announced as next James Bond? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 13d
No one announced as next James Bond? SELL Yes 89¢ $1 13d
Theo James announced as next James Bond? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 13d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 16d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 31d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 31d
Will France be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.20 · official $45.21 (match) · 92 history records