Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:32:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa322…3064 sports 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$114 (-49%) realized +$9 · open −$123
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$114
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +8.5% -1.8% 67% 67% +6.5%
≤30d 3 +8.5% -1.8% 67% 67% +6.5%
≤90d 3 +8.5% -1.8% 67% 67% +6.5%
all 3 +8.5% -1.8% 67% 67% +6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.8% 67% +6.5%
10% -11.2% 0% -3.7%
15% -19.8% 0% -13.0%
20% -27.6% 0% -21.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 96% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$0 · ×71.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×142.58 per $1 lost it wins $142.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized+$9
Unrealized−$123
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)3 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Hive - Game 1 Winner Nemiga Gaming 58¢ 100¢ $20 $34 +$14 (+72%)
Krejcikova vs. Klugman: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Under 42¢ 100¢ $10 $24 +$14 (+138%)
Set Handicap: Rinderknech (-1.5) vs Tarvet (+1.5) Tarvet 45¢ 0¢ $101 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Valorant: Joblife vs Barça eSports - Map 2 Winner Barça eSports 42¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Quinn vs. Darderi: Match O/U 38.5 Jun 29 $46 +$8 +18%
Set 1 Winner: Fokina vs Cerundolo Jun 29 $3 $0 +13%
Troyes: Igor Ribeiro Marcondes vs Thomas Faurel Jun 29 $1 $0 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Hive - Game 1 Winner BUY Nemiga Gaming 58¢ $20 49m
Krejcikova vs. Klugman: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Under 42¢ $10 1h
Set Handicap: Rinderknech (-1.5) vs Tarvet (+1.5) BUY Tarvet 45¢ $102 1h
Valorant: Joblife vs Barça eSports - Map 2 Winner BUY Barça eSports 42¢ $51 1h
Quinn vs. Darderi: Match O/U 38.5 BUY Under 84¢ $46 1h
Set 1 Winner: Fokina vs Cerundolo SELL Fokina 56¢ $3 1h
Set 1 Winner: Fokina vs Cerundolo BUY Fokina 48¢ $3 1h
Troyes: Igor Ribeiro Marcondes vs Thomas Faurel SELL Thomas Faurel 58¢ $1 3h
Troyes: Igor Ribeiro Marcondes vs Thomas Faurel BUY Thomas Faurel 59¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.07 · official $58.07 (match) · 10 history records