Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:59:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa31f…200e crypto 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$38 (-11%) realized −$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate52%22W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day13.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$21
politics 20% −$14
sports 3% −$10
other 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-29.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -22.2% -29.6% 52% 36% -22.6%
≤30d 42 -22.2% -29.6% 52% 36% -22.6%
≤90d 42 -22.2% -29.6% 52% 36% -22.6%
all 42 -22.2% -29.6% 52% 36% -22.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.6% 36% -22.6%
10% -36.3% 24% -30.0%
15% -42.5% 17% -36.7%
20% -48.1% 12% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses22 / 20
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage6d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day13.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $71 −$14 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$7 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 8-14? Jun 11 $5 −$2 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$2 -55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 11 $25 +$2 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $6 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $6 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $12 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 9¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $10 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 101 history records