Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:27:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa31a…d49f crypto 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4 (+26%) realized +$1 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day24.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% −$2
other 40% −$1
sports 7% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -8.5% -17.2% 36% 18% -3.1%
≤30d 11 -8.5% -17.2% 36% 18% -3.1%
≤90d 11 -8.5% -17.2% 36% 18% -3.1%
all 11 -8.5% -17.2% 36% 18% -3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.2% 18% -3.1%
10% ← realistic here -25.2% 18% -12.4%
15% -32.4% 18% -20.8%
20% -39.0% 18% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day24.0
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $1 $0 -24%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +262%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $2 +$4 +180%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 $0 +3%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -23%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 45m
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 49m
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 49m
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 5h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 5h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 6h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 40¢ $1 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 7h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 7h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 7h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 25 history records