Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:46:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa31a…d023 sports 270 markets active 1h ago coverage 41d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$8,326 (-21%) realized −$8,322 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate39%104W / 164L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$144per market
Trades / day13.4pace
Fees−$614est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$331now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$343
7 days−$80
14 days−$208
30 days−$9,665
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$10,437
crypto 12% +$744
world 2% +$30
other 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 +10.0% -0.4% 57% 44% -11.7%
≤30d 268 -2.8% -12.1% 39% 29% -33.5%
≤90d 268 -2.8% -12.1% 39% 29% -33.5%
all 268 -2.8% -12.1% 39% 29% -33.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 29% -33.5%
10% -20.5% 22% -39.8%
15% -28.2% 17% -45.6%
20% -35.2% 15% -51.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -26% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$102 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$331
Realized−$8,322
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses104 / 164
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$614
Open positions2
Markets (closed)268 / 270
History coverage41d
Avg bet$144
Trades / day13.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 268 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $205 $206 +$1 (+1%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 88¢ $131 $125 −$5 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 82 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $25 +$6 +23%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 11.5 Jun 17 $25 +$4 +16%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $25 +$2 +10%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 17 $86 −$84 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $13 +$17 +124%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $25 +$5 +18%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $25 +$5 +18%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $9 −$9 -98%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 16 $107 −$105 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $16 +$3 +16%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $25 +$6 +24%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $25 +$5 +18%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 16 $23 −$23 -99%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $25 −$25 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 11.5 Jun 16 $25 −$25 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $25 +$5 +18%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 16 $89 −$87 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $25 +$3 +12%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $25 −$25 -99%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $25 −$25 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $25 +$8 +30%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $25 +$4 +16%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $25 +$8 +32%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $12 −$12 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $85 +$51 +59%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5 Jun 15 $281 +$81 +29%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 11.5 Jun 15 $25 +$9 +34%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5) Jun 15 $132 −$129 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 Jun 14 $224 +$15 +7%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $40 +$7 +17%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $16 +$1 +3%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $146 +$174 +119%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $161 −$158 -98%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $146 −$144 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $25 +$4 +16%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $25 +$42 +165%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5 Jun 14 $25 +$4 +16%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 11.5 Jun 14 $25 +$2 +10%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $25 +$2 +10%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 11.5 Jun 14 $25 +$4 +15%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $25 +$5 +20%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $25 +$26 +104%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $244 +$370 +152%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 86¢ $25 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 81¢ $25 1h
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 24¢ $86 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 91¢ $25 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 46¢ $9 2h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 44¢ $13 2h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 84¢ $25 2h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 84¢ $25 3h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $205 4h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Toronto Tempo 20¢ $107 5h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 35¢ $3 25h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 77¢ $23 25h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 80¢ $25 25h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 84¢ $25 25h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 86¢ $16 25h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 48¢ $25 25h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 41¢ $25 25h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 29¢ $26 26h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 25¢ $89 26h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 75¢ $25 26h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 81¢ $25 26h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 84¢ $25 26h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 89¢ $25 27h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 41¢ $12 27h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 75¢ $25 27h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 86¢ $25 28h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 76¢ $25 28h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 44¢ $25 28h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $131 30h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 14¢ $132 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $331.14 · official $331.14 (match) · 673 history records