trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +0.3% | -9.2% | 100% | 0% | -9.1% |
| ≤30d | 2 | +0.3% | -9.2% | 100% | 0% | -9.1% |
| ≤90d | 5 | +0.7% | -8.9% | 100% | 0% | -8.9% |
| all | 30 | -27.6% | -34.5% | 53% | 17% | -21.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -34.5% | 17% | -21.3% |
| 10% | -40.8% | 13% | -28.8% |
| 15% | -46.5% | 13% | -35.7% |
| 20% | -51.8% | 13% | -42.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $50 | $50 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me | Jun 28 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me | Jun 28 | $40 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m | May 17 | $20 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m | May 17 | $30 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m | May 17 | $50 | $0 | +0% |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? | Feb 16 | $99 | +$1 | +1% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? | Dec 14 | $20 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Dec 14 | $18 | +$2 | +11% |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? | Aug 31 | $98 | $0 | +0% |
| Dodgers vs. Red Sox | Jul 27 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Rockies vs. Orioles | Jul 27 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Diamondbacks vs. Pirates | Jul 27 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after March 2025 meeting? | Jul 27 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? | Mar 11 | $30 | −$1 | -3% |
| Bitcoin above $99,000 on February 28? | Mar 11 | $12 | −$12 | -100% |
| Will Kanye launch a coin in February? | Mar 11 | $52 | −$52 | -100% |
| Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025? | Feb 24 | $53 | −$53 | -100% |
| Will the Eagles win Super Bowl 2025? | Feb 24 | $42 | +$48 | +113% |
| Rams vs. Eagles | Feb 03 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Lakers vs. Clippers | Feb 03 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Bulls vs. Trail Blazers | Feb 03 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| 76ers vs. Bucks | Feb 03 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Nuggets vs. Magic | Feb 03 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Ethereum above $3,400 on January 24? | Feb 03 | $8 | −$8 | -100% |
| Wizards vs. Kings | Feb 03 | $14 | +$1 | +9% |
| Spurs vs. Heat | Feb 03 | $9 | +$6 | +72% |
| Ravens vs. Bills | Feb 03 | $7 | +$8 | +100% |
| Nets vs. Thunder | Feb 03 | $15 | +$1 | +8% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after January 2025 meeting? | Feb 03 | $18 | $0 | +0% |
| Bitcoin above $103,000 on January 24? | Feb 03 | $13 | +$7 | +56% |