Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T21:39:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
A3 0xa315…2d8d sports 178 markets active 2h ago coverage 380d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$2,043 (+10%) realized +$2,022 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate55%97W / 79L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$92est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days+$199
14 days+$123
30 days+$519
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$1,044
other 17% +$937
crypto 1% +$107
culture 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +19.7% +8.3% 69% 69% +18.3%
≤30d 32 +25.0% +13.1% 66% 66% +11.7%
≤90d 76 +32.2% +19.6% 59% 57% +11.2%
all 176 +17.6% +6.4% 55% 54% -0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.4% 54% -0.2%
10% -3.8% 53% -9.7%
15% -13.1% 51% -18.4%
20% -21.6% 44% -26.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late +25% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$78 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

380d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized+$2,022
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses97 / 79
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$92
Open positions1
Markets (closed)176 / 178
History coverage380d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 176 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 23¢ $48 $69 +$21 (+43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 65 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $51 +$31 +62%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $74 +$36 +49%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $74 +$71 +96%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $51 +$31 +62%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $71 −$14 -19%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $50 +$20 +40%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $51 −$4 -7%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $51 +$34 +67%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $50 +$9 +18%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 22 $25 +$11 +43%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $50 +$23 +46%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $252 −$250 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 −$30 -59%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 Jun 20 $25 +$36 +142%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$71 +70%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$71 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $25 +$15 +60%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $25 +$27 +105%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$46 +46%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $201 +$93 +46%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $25 +$44 +172%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $100 +$109 +109%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $150 +$123 +82%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $50 +$82 +165%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $102 +$137 +135%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $102 −$100 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $278 +$201 +72%
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 22 $42 +$126 +298%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 15 $66 −$65 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $25 +$40 +158%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Thunder (-16.5) May 07 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-10.5) May 07 $50 +$17 +34%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 06 $10 −$10 -98%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Thunder vs. Lakers May 04 $103 −$100 -97%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 04 $25 +$19 +75%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $51 +$105 +206%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 02 $51 +$74 +145%
Will Los Angeles Lakers advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 20 May 02 $25 +$118 +473%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets May 02 $65 +$273 +420%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 30 $261 +$100 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 58¢ $25 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 44¢ $25 21h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $82 43h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? SELL 99¢ $110 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL 99¢ $144 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY 65¢ $74 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY 50¢ $74 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $82 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $51 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL 48¢ $57 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY 58¢ $71 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 99¢ $71 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 4d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) SELL 34¢ $47 4d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY 35¢ $51 4d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $85 5d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 59¢ $51 5d
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 95¢ $59 5d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $36 6d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 80¢ $50 6d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 69¢ $25 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $252 7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 27¢ $21 7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY 55¢ $25 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 SELL 98¢ $62 7d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 8d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.12 · official $69.12 (match) · 376 history records