Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:01:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A3 0xa315…e385 other 23 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$174 (+59%) realized +$175 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +86% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +61% what you keep after slip
Net edge+61%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%10W / 9L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$66
sports 40% +$109
world 7% −$10
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+68.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +85.7% +68.0% 53% 53% +51.4%
≤30d 19 +85.7% +68.0% 53% 53% +51.4%
≤90d 19 +85.7% +68.0% 53% 53% +51.4%
all 19 +85.7% +68.0% 53% 53% +51.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +68.0% 53% +51.4%
10% +52.0% 47% +36.9%
15% +37.3% 47% +23.7%
20% +23.8% 47% +11.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 37% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +67% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +86% · $-wt +67% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +149% → late +29% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$7 · ×3.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.73 per $1 lost it wins $3.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized+$175
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses10 / 9
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)19 / 23
History coverage6d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-3%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $24 −$11 -46%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $49 +$25 +51%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -96%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $25 +$14 +58%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$10 -50%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $11 +$36 +326%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $9 +$20 +234%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $29 +$5 +16%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4 +$10 +220%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 +$34 +431%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $9 +$24 +268%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $8 +$47 +590%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -0%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $8 +$10 +131%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 1m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 2m
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 6m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 8m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 5h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 10¢ $8 5h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 6h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $39 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 22h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 22h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 27h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $8 27h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $39 31h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 32h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $15 32h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 28¢ $10 32h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $46 34h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 34h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $6 40h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $6 40h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 77¢ $29 41h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $9 41h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $4 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 76¢ $15 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 76¢ $15 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.96 · official $47.96 (match) · 48 history records