Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:56:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa314…608c other 83 markets active 8h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate44%36W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$11
14 days+$10
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% −$14
other 33% −$2
politics 1% +$4
crypto 1% −$3
sports 1% −$3
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.5% -10.0% 29% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 23 -0.8% -10.3% 30% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 25 -0.8% -10.2% 32% 0% -9.7%
all 82 -2.1% -11.4% 44% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 4% -9.7%
10% -19.9% 1% -18.4%
15% -27.6% 1% -26.3%
20% -34.7% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses36 / 46
Open positions1
Markets (closed)82 / 83
History coverage474d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 65¢ 93¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $311 −$9 -3%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $290 −$2 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $159 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $196 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $168 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $152 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 11 $85 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $25 $0 +2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $6 $0 -8%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 09 $390 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $163 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $596 −$1 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $382 +$22 +6%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $156 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $14 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $428 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $53 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $12 +$1 +5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 30 $1,231 −$5 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $154 −$2 -1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 28 $2 $0 -8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $154 −$15 -10%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $253 −$2 -1%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $990 −$2 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $964 +$1 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $1 $0 +4%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 26 $2 −$1 -53%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jun 26 $3 $0 -15%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin above $111,000 on June 3? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? Jun 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will the candidate from the Democratic Party (DPK) win the South Korea Jun 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win between 53% and 55% of the vote in the South Ko Jun 02 $9 $0 +4%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? Jun 01 $9 $0 -0%
Will Chan Santokhi be the next president of Suriname after the electio Jun 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 4-8%? May 31 $1 $0 -7%
Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 May 31 $10 $0 +0%
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland? May 30 $7 +$2 +22%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? May 30 $8 +$1 +15%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 28 $12 $0 -3%
Will Kim Moon-soo win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential elect May 25 $8 $0 +1%
Will xAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 23 $9 $0 +2%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? May 21 $9 $0 +2%
Will Albania be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final May 17 $11 $0 +1%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2025? May 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? May 16 $3 −$1 -23%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 14 $13 $0 -1%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? May 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? May 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 11 $8 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 61¢ $142 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $144 9h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $128 24h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $128 24h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $23 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $137 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $159 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 46¢ $41 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 46¢ $119 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $166 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $151 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $152 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $121 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $4 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $94 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $31 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $71 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $34 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $37 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $117 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $51 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $168 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $152 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $107 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $45 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $8 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $9 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $1 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 73¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.90 · official $0.00 (match) · 324 history records