Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:34:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa312…8374 other 242 markets active 2h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$84 (-0%) realized −$84 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%12W / 230L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$222per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$16
14 days−$24
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$37
sports 25% −$18
politics 8% −$8
culture 6% −$6
economics 6% −$11
crypto 5% −$6
world 4% −$7
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 66 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 172 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 242 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$84
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses12 / 230
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)242 / 242
History coverage135d
Avg bet$222
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 242 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $356 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $455 −$1 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $341 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $191 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $629 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $686 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $287 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $226 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $299 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $86 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $594 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 17 $606 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $860 −$2 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $120 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $306 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $324 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $335 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $775 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $451 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $356 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $580 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $58 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $394 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $501 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $195 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $140 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $286 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $548 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $59 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $279 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $378 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $132 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $60 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $539 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $409 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $262 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $151 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $325 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $563 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $292 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $448 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $206 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $230 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 02 $348 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $64 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $184 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 01 $370 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 31 $298 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $535 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $55 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $56 3h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $56 5h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $56 7h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $56 7h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $56 9h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $56 13h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $56 14h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $56 17h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $56 18h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $56 20h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $56 21h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $56 23h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $56 25h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $56 26h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $57 27h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $57 29h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $57 31h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $24 35h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $24 37h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 38h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 40h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $57 41h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $57 42h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 45h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 47h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 2d
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 2d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 2d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.