Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T00:48:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa30f…4da6 crypto 604 markets active 0h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$37 · open +$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate52%309W / 289L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day20.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$114now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$6
14 days−$124
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 57% −$16
crypto 43% −$155
other 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-25.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -5.0% -14.1% 31% 22% -10.0%
≤30d 77 -17.3% -25.2% 32% 22% -11.4%
≤90d 598 -18.0% -25.8% 52% 38% -14.1%
all 598 -18.0% -25.8% 52% 38% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.8% 38% -14.1%
10% ← realistic here -32.9% 24% -22.4%
15% -39.4% 13% -29.9%
20% -45.4% 7% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$114
Realized−$37
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses309 / 289
Open positions6
Markets (closed)598 / 604
History coverage89d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day20.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 598 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 17? Yes 20¢ 34¢ $30 $51 +$21 (+71%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 17? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 17? Yes 14¢ 18¢ $22 $28 +$6 (+28%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-76%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 17? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 17? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 131 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $17 −$9 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 +$126 +636%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $81 −$80 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $91 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? Jun 15 $41 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? Jun 15 $33 −$32 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $99 +$21 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $31 −$6 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $41 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $101 +$14 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 14 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? Jun 14 $6 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $37 +$67 +181%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $31 +$19 +62%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $35 −$34 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $38 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 −$2 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $27 −$3 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? Jun 12 $6 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 12 $31 −$5 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? Jun 12 $14 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 13? Jun 12 $10 −$5 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 −$5 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $66 −$7 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 13? Jun 12 $4 −$2 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $29 −$14 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 12? Jun 11 $8 −$1 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? Jun 11 $1 $0 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 12? Jun 11 $0 $0 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 10? Jun 09 $28 −$3 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 8? Jun 07 $36 −$35 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 8? Jun 07 $31 −$30 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 7? Jun 07 $35 −$14 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 7? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 7? Jun 07 $47 −$19 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 7? Jun 07 $8 −$8 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 6? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 6? Jun 06 $45 +$52 +113%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 6? Jun 06 $36 −$36 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 6? Jun 06 $40 −$21 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 5? Jun 06 $45 +$91 +204%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 5? Jun 05 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 5? Jun 05 $3 −$3 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 6¢ $9 6m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 51m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 57m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 58m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 25¢ $19 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $113.50 · official $113.50 (match) · 1852 history records