Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:52:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
A3 0xa30e…0a87 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$732 (-48%) realized −$735 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$219per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$303now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$95
7 days−$213
14 days−$213
30 days−$213
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$233
sports 33% −$500
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-48.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +13.0% +2.2% 67% 67% -36.9%
≤30d 3 +13.0% +2.2% 67% 67% -36.9%
≤90d 3 +13.0% +2.2% 67% 67% -36.9%
all 6 -43.5% -48.9% 33% 33% -63.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.9% 33% -63.8%
10% -53.8% 33% -67.3%
15% -58.3% 33% -70.4%
20% -62.3% 17% -73.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt -60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$93 vs −$231 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$303
Realized−$735
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage138d
Avg bet$219
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $300 $303 +$3 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 26 $101 +$95 +93%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $406 −$400 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $202 +$92 +46%
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be orange? Feb 08 $22 −$22 -100%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 08 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Coinbase Global (COIN) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 08 $200 −$200 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $304 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $406 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $202 4d
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be orange? BUY Yes 24¢ $22 137d
Seahawks vs. Patriots BUY Patriots 33¢ $300 137d
Will Coinbase Global (COIN) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 41¢ $200 137d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $302.59 · official $302.59 (match) · 9 history records