trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | 6 | -6.3% | -15.2% | 67% | 50% | +4.9% |
| all | 26 | -9.9% | -18.5% | 46% | 42% | +5.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -18.5% | 42% | +5.7% |
| 10% | -26.3% | 38% | -4.4% |
| 15% | -33.4% | 35% | -13.6% |
| 20% | -39.9% | 31% | -22.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 12¢ | 8¢ | $565 | $385 | −$180 (-32%) |
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 11¢ | 11¢ | $330 | $330 | +$0 (+0%) |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | Yes | 47¢ | 42¢ | $251 | $229 | −$22 (-9%) |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 51¢ | 44¢ | $15 | $13 | −$2 (-15%) |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 27¢ | 23¢ | $5 | $4 | −$1 (-16%) |
| Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? | Yes | 26¢ | 4¢ | $5 | $1 | −$4 (-85%) |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? | Yes | 27¢ | 1¢ | $30 | $1 | −$29 (-98%) |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? | Yes | 18¢ | 1¢ | $15 | $0 | −$15 (-97%) |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-77%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | May 18 | $16 | +$2 | +11% |
| Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? | May 06 | $2 | −$2 | -99% |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Apr 29 | $200 | +$4 | +2% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Apr 23 | $50 | +$23 | +45% |
| Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027? | Apr 17 | $32 | +$33 | +104% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | Mar 27 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will "Epstein" be said at the Oscars? | Mar 17 | $18 | −$18 | -100% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | Mar 10 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Mar 01 | $19 | +$34 | +177% |
| US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026? | Mar 01 | $5 | +$9 | +186% |
| US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026? | Mar 01 | $7 | +$14 | +203% |
| US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026? | Mar 01 | $10 | +$14 | +144% |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Feb 20 | $6 | −$2 | -28% |
| US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? | Feb 20 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? | Feb 20 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? | Feb 20 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by March | Feb 20 | $38 | +$11 | +29% |
| Will Russia enter Sofiivka by February 28? | Feb 04 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| US strike on Cuba by March 31? | Jan 12 | $15 | +$9 | +60% |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 9? | Jan 05 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Maduro mugshot released by January 9? | Jan 05 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31? | Jan 02 | $8 | +$8 | +100% |
| Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by December 31? | Jan 02 | $15 | +$8 | +54% |
| Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 26? | Dec 22 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? | Dec 22 | $3 | −$2 | -73% |
| Will Russia capture Huliaipole by December 31? | Dec 07 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |