Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:12:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa309…4cf2 economics 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 44d
RISKYcopy with care economics specialist⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$18,126 (+16%) realized −$21,059 · open +$39,185
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$9,191per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$142,008now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 44d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 96% +$38,022
other 3% +$1,067
crypto 2% +$106
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-35.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -62.5% -66.0% 0% 0% -66.0%
≤30d 2 -28.3% -35.1% 50% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 2 -28.3% -35.1% 50% 0% -9.0%
all 2 -28.3% -35.1% 50% 0% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.1% 0% -9.0%
10% -41.3% 0% -17.8%
15% -47.0% 0% -25.7%
20% -52.2% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
24.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$106 vs −$96 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$142,008
Realized−$21,059
Unrealized+$39,185
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Open positions10
Markets (closed)2 / 12
History coverage44d
Avg bet$9,191
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 44¢ 59¢ $71,977 $96,870 +$24,894 (+35%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 59¢ 80¢ $22,594 $30,586 +$7,992 (+35%)
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? No 67¢ 78¢ $3,731 $4,398 +$667 (+18%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? No 8¢ 24¢ $1,210 $3,556 +$2,345 (+194%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 3¢ 20¢ $346 $2,566 +$2,220 (+642%)
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026? Yes 18¢ 36¢ $863 $1,707 +$843 (+98%)
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027? No 56¢ 83¢ $849 $1,258 +$410 (+48%)
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026? Yes 55¢ 39¢ $843 $598 −$245 (-29%)
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $334 $386 +$52 (+16%)
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $76 $82 +$6 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 17 $154 −$96 -62%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $1,792 +$106 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $82 53m
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the BUY Yes 12¢ $5 55m
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the BUY Yes 8¢ $7 56m
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the BUY Yes 5¢ $5 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes 2¢ $5 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes 2¢ $52 1h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $1,015 1h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $420 1h
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the BUY Yes 3¢ $3 1h
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the BUY Yes 5¢ $4 2h
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the BUY Yes 5¢ $6 2h
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the BUY Yes 4¢ $7 2h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $726 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $142,007.88 · official $142,007.88 (match) · 389 history records