Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:54:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa309…8427 other 120 markets active 1h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$714 (-10%) realized −$384 · open −$330
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate27%31W / 83L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$5,398now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$96
14 days−$96
30 days−$96
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% −$637
crypto 4% −$46
finance 1% −$87
weather 1% −$42
world 1% +$22
sports 0% +$22
economics 0% −$3
politics 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -2.7% -12.0% 40% 35% -41.8%
≤30d 20 -2.7% -12.0% 40% 35% -41.8%
≤90d 20 -2.7% -12.0% 40% 35% -41.8%
all 114 -9.1% -17.8% 27% 24% -42.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 24% -42.6%
10% -25.6% 22% -48.1%
15% -32.8% 21% -53.1%
20% -39.4% 19% -57.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$9 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$5,398
Realized−$384
Unrealized−$330
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses31 / 83
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)114 / 120
History coverage159d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $2,800 $2,734 −$66 (-2%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 72¢ $1,500 $1,352 −$148 (-10%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 52¢ $850 $790 −$60 (-7%)
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 57¢ $500 $442 −$58 (-12%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $75 $74 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$16 +307%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $12 +$11 +93%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 +$10 +250%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $22 +$1 +6%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $25 +$14 +57%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 +$11 +276%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $29 −$29 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$12 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $14 −$14 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +44%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 14 $10 −$6 -58%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 14 $10 −$8 -76%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 14 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 14 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 13 $2 +$4 +208%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 13 $5 −$5 -90%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 13 $10 −$9 -90%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 12 $3 +$6 +217%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Houthi strike on Israel by March 6, 2026? Mar 09 $2 $0 +21%
Will there be a new supreme leader of Iran before Kevin Warsh is confi Mar 09 $5 +$2 +32%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 07 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 07 $4 +$43 +1085%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 06 $2 +$3 +143%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 05 $5 −$2 -45%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 7, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Mar 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-02-17? Mar 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Mar 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Mar 05 $2 −$2 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 10? Mar 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Mar 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Mar 05 $15 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $56 1h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $1,509 16h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 19h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $11 19h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $13 19h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $21 19h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $10 19h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $23 27h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $6 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $12 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $22 2d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $12 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $25 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $29 2d
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $505 2d
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 56¢ $861 2d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $2,830 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $14 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 4d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $8 93d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 93d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,397.78 · official $5,397.78 (match) · 230 history records