Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:39:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A3 0xa307…33d9 crypto 1177 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$1,125 (+28%) realized −$1,567 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate44%699W / 893L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day26.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,524
7 days−$1,524
14 days−$1,524
30 days−$1,524
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-25.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 501 -56.3% -60.4% 15% 13% -80.6%
≤30d 501 -56.3% -60.4% 15% 13% -80.6%
≤90d 624 -47.8% -52.8% 20% 17% -67.3%
all 1592 -18.1% -25.9% 44% 40% -31.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.9% 40% -31.5%
10% ← realistic here -33.0% 31% -38.0%
15% -39.5% 23% -44.0%
20% -45.4% 15% -49.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -79% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,567
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses699 / 893
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1592 / 1177
History coverage100d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day26.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1592 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - March 7, 9AM ET Down 71¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 6, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Down 69¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - February 27, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - February 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - February 26, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - February 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - February 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - March 5, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - February 22, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - February 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Up 76¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - March 1, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - February 21, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - February 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - February 27, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - February 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - March 6, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 27, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$4 -142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$5 -163%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$1 -522%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$1 -374%
Solana Up or Down - February 26, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$2 -2934%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$2 -1203%
Solana Up or Down - February 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $0 +$1 +250%
Solana Up or Down - March 5, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$1 -804%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 22, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 1, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$1 -1263%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 21, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$5 -76%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $0 +$1 +1471%
XRP Up or Down - February 27, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$1 -621%
XRP Up or Down - February 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 20, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$6 -187%
XRP Up or Down - March 6, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 27, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 22, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -804%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 1, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$16 -153%
XRP Up or Down - March 5, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 21, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$2 -1218%
Solana Up or Down - March 5, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +212%
Solana Up or Down - February 22, 6AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$3 -224%
XRP Up or Down - February 26, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$1 -600%
Solana Up or Down - March 1, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$5 -150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$4 -3098%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$4 -1363%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 6, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 20, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +73%
Solana Up or Down - March 6, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$2 -2632%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 21, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 8AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$5 -170%
XRP Up or Down - February 25, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$1 -858%
XRP Up or Down - February 28, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$4 -1616%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? SELL Up 22¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $8 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $9 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? SELL Up 16¢ $0 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $8 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $8 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $8 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $8 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $8 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $8 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Up 77¢ $8 12h
XRP Up or Down - March 26, 12PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $2 80d
XRP Up or Down - March 26, 12PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $2 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $3 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $3 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 80d
Solana Up or Down - March 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $1 80d
Solana Up or Down - March 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 80d
Solana Up or Down - March 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $1 80d
Solana Up or Down - March 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 80d
XRP Up or Down - March 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $2 80d
XRP Up or Down - March 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 80d
Solana Up or Down - March 26, 12PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $2 80d
Solana Up or Down - March 26, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $2 80d
XRP Up or Down - March 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $1 80d
XRP Up or Down - March 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 80d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records