Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:04:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A3 0xa306…c65c crypto 555 markets active 2h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,356 (+7%) realized +$2,356 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate84%464W / 91L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day23.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$136
7 days+$1,536
14 days+$3,061
30 days+$3,070
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2,073
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 112 +11.0% +0.4% 94% 30% -0.7%
≤30d 327 +14.8% +3.9% 91% 30% +1.7%
≤90d 555 +6.3% -3.9% 84% 34% -3.8%
all 555 +6.3% -3.9% 84% 34% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.9% 34% -3.8%
10% ← realistic here -13.1% 20% -13.1%
15% -21.5% 13% -21.5%
20% -29.2% 9% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$54 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,356
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses464 / 91
Open positions0
Markets (closed)555 / 555
History coverage72d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day23.2
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 555 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $169 +$8 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $301 +$29 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $150 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $301 +$50 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $103 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $150 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $151 +$7 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $301 +$17 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $144 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $152 +$30 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $300 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $165 +$31 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $301 +$32 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $201 +$21 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $149 +$156 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $201 +$35 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $147 +$257 +175%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $177 +$198 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $49 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $200 +$14 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $138 +$11 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $200 +$15 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $200 +$14 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $178 +$45 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $149 +$25 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $201 −$201 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $114 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $201 +$9 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $60 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $32 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $203 +$97 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $201 +$27 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 14 $200 +$11 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$6 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $74 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $74 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $9 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $8 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $151 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $20 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $38 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $9 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $9 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $9 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $27 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $18 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $150 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $75 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $75 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $151 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $75 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $75 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $151 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $103 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $9 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $75 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $151 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $16 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2248 history records