Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:19:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A3 0xa302…f2b9 politics 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 596d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$42 (-0%) realized −$42 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate21%11W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$322per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 77% −$14
politics 17% −$7
other 3% −$33
sports 1% +$8
world 1% +$2
culture 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 17 +3.7% -6.2% 12% 6% -7.1%
≤90d 40 +0.2% -9.3% 20% 12% -10.3%
all 53 -0.3% -9.8% 21% 9% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 9% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 9% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 9% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 9% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

596d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses11 / 42
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)53 / 55
History coverage596d
Avg bet$322
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $10 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $7 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $9 $0 -0%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $12 +$7 +65%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $7 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $12 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $11 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $11 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 02 $27 $0 +0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $10 $0 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $11 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 18 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 18 $51 $0 -0%
Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 11 $57 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $56 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 07 $60 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $57 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $58 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $60 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $57 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 21 $61 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $57 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $57 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $59 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 18 $61 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $57 $0 -0%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $7 +$6 +86%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $10 +$5 +52%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $6 +$6 +104%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Lightning vs. Sabres Apr 07 $7 +$7 +104%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-03-22? Apr 06 $19 −$19 -100%
Based FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 06 $19 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $160 in March? Apr 06 $39 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Mar 05 $4 $0 +0%
Based FDV above $1B one day after launch? Feb 28 $86 −$13 -15%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Feb 13 $83 +$3 +3%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 06 $13,543 −$14 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 08 $2 $0 -2%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 18 $30 −$1 -2%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 13 $30 −$1 -2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 30 $40 −$1 -3%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 13 $1 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 10 $311 −$3 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $8 1h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $9 41h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 45h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $25 3d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $7 5d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $7 5d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $9 7d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $9 8d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $6 8d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $7 8d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Milwaukee Brewers 60¢ $12 8d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $11 11d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $12 11d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $11 12d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $11 12d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $10 13d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $11 13d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 14d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 14d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 15d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 15d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $10 16d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $10 16d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $11 17d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 17d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 23d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 23d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 24d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 24d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $27 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.54 · official $33.54 (match) · 240 history records