Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:52:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A2 0xa2fd…e7a6 politics 123 markets active 2h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$92 (+0%) realized +$92 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate8%10W / 112L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$369per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$26
politics 42% −$23
sports 5% +$138
economics 3% −$1
crypto 2% −$1
tech 1% $0
world 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 110 -3.8% -13.0% 4% 3% -9.6%
all 122 +6.4% -3.8% 8% 7% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.8% 7% -9.4%
10% -13.0% 7% -18.0%
15% -21.4% 5% -25.9%
20% -29.1% 5% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$590) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +13% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$1 · ×20.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.87 per $1 lost it wins $1.87
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized+$92
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses10 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)122 / 123
History coverage117d
Avg bet$369
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 21 $42 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $52 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 21 $36 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $332 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 15 $43 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $427 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 12 $46 $0 -0%
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 10 $41 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 09 $45 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $55 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $321 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $38 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $258 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $577 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $1,019 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $375 −$1 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 20 $252 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $1,124 −$1 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $914 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $310 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $318 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $277 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $284 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $625 −$1 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 12 $896 −$1 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $606 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 11 $725 −$1 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $348 −$1 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $308 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $322 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $269 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? May 06 $58 $0 +0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $653 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 04 $537 −$1 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $312 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $631 −$1 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 03 $248 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $243 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $665 −$1 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 01 $611 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $304 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $594 −$1 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $718 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $359 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $634 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $374 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $285 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $268 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 24 $369 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $708 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $48 1h
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $42 1h
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $42 4h
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 7h
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 12h
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $36 12h
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 15h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $49 19h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $49 24h
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $43 6d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $43 6d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $31 6d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $31 7d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $46 8d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $46 11d
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $41 11d
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $41 11d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $45 11d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $45 12d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $55 13d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $55 21d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $36 21d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $36 21d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 22d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 22d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $258 26d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $258 27d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $303 28d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $303 28d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $344 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.98 · official $47.98 (match) · 382 history records