Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:52:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A2 0xa2f9…cfd8 sports 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$286 (+3%) realized +$286 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate55%18W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$272per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$94est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$181
7 days−$181
14 days+$336
30 days+$336
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% +$47
world 29% +$94
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -6.1% -15.0% 0% 0% -15.0%
≤30d 2 +29.6% +17.2% 50% 50% -1.5%
≤90d 2 +29.6% +17.2% 50% 50% -1.5%
all 33 +4.3% -5.7% 55% 27% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 27% -8.1%
10% -14.7% 27% -16.9%
15% -22.9% 21% -24.9%
20% -30.5% 21% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$75 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$286
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses18 / 15
Est. fees paid−$94
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage160d
Avg bet$272
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 23 $2,986 −$181 -6%
Counter-Strike: Club 333 vs Festina Lente (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playof Jun 12 $793 +$517 +65%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Mar 14 $92 −$92 -100%
Ayo Dosunmu: Points O/U 9.5 Mar 14 $25 +$51 +204%
Aaron Gordon: Rebounds O/U 5.5 Mar 13 $130 −$130 -100%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 2.5 Mar 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Scottie Barnes: Rebounds O/U 6.5 Mar 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Jalen Smith: Points O/U 11.5 Mar 13 $49 +$157 +321%
LeBron James: Points O/U 18.5 Mar 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Feb 01 $179 −$179 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A Feb 01 $181 −$2 -1%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Feb 01 $100 −$69 -69%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Astralis - Map 2 Winner Jan 31 $151 −$151 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Astralis - Map 1 Winner Jan 31 $136 −$136 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 31 $100 −$11 -10%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jan 31 $186 −$40 -21%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs NIP - Map 2 Winner Jan 30 $143 +$243 +170%
US strikes Iran by January 28, 2026? Jan 29 $339 +$4 +1%
US strikes Iran by January 27, 2026? Jan 28 $335 +$4 +1%
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? Jan 27 $331 +$4 +1%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winner Jan 25 $561 −$32 -6%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Map 1 Winner Jan 25 $135 +$98 +73%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO5) - BLAST Bounty Playof Jan 25 $140 −$16 -11%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 24 $256 +$25 +10%
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? Jan 19 $254 +$2 +1%
Counter-Strike: EYEBALLERS vs Vitality (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifier Jan 18 $130 +$10 +7%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Astralis - Map 1 Winner Jan 18 $98 +$32 +33%
US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026? Jan 18 $420 +$1 +0%
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Jan 17 $207 +$4 +2%
Dota 2: Veroja vs yache123 - Game 1 Winner Jan 16 $20 +$13 +67%
Dota 2: Veroja vs yache123 (BO3) Jan 16 $40 +$33 +81%
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? Jan 16 $159 +$1 +1%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Jan 15 $227 +$60 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B SELL K27 51¢ $2,805 1h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY K27 52¢ $996 3h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY K27 52¢ $994 3h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY K27 52¢ $2 4h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY K27 53¢ $994 4h
Counter-Strike: Club 333 vs Festina Lente (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playof SELL Festina Lente 100¢ $1,310 11d
Counter-Strike: Club 333 vs Festina Lente (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playof BUY Festina Lente 64¢ $56 11d
Counter-Strike: Club 333 vs Festina Lente (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playof BUY Festina Lente 63¢ $39 11d
Counter-Strike: Club 333 vs Festina Lente (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playof BUY Festina Lente 62¢ $101 11d
Counter-Strike: Club 333 vs Festina Lente (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playof BUY Festina Lente 62¢ $98 11d
Counter-Strike: Club 333 vs Festina Lente (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playof BUY Festina Lente 61¢ $101 11d
Counter-Strike: Club 333 vs Festina Lente (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playof BUY Festina Lente 64¢ $98 11d
Counter-Strike: Club 333 vs Festina Lente (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playof BUY Festina Lente 59¢ $101 11d
Counter-Strike: Club 333 vs Festina Lente (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playof BUY Festina Lente 55¢ $98 11d
Counter-Strike: Club 333 vs Festina Lente (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playof BUY Festina Lente 53¢ $101 11d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $92 101d
Ayo Dosunmu: Points O/U 9.5 SELL Yes 100¢ $76 101d
Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 2.5 BUY Yes 34¢ $25 102d
Ayo Dosunmu: Points O/U 9.5 BUY Yes 33¢ $25 102d
Scottie Barnes: Rebounds O/U 6.5 BUY Yes 32¢ $25 102d
LeBron James: Points O/U 18.5 BUY Yes 23¢ $30 102d
Jalen Smith: Points O/U 11.5 BUY Yes 24¢ $49 102d
Aaron Gordon: Rebounds O/U 5.5 BUY Yes 29¢ $130 102d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 59¢ $179 141d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A SELL Natus Vincere 41¢ $179 141d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A BUY Natus Vincere 42¢ $181 141d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs NRG - Map 1 Winner SELL NRG 12¢ $31 142d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs NRG - Map 1 Winner BUY NRG 40¢ $100 142d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Astralis - Map 2 Winner BUY Astralis 46¢ $151 142d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Astralis - Map 1 Winner BUY Astralis 46¢ $36 142d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 86 history records