Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:44:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A2 0xa2f8…eb9e sports 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$10 (+3%) realized +$12 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$230now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$6
other 12% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -5.5% -14.5% 71% 71% -18.9%
≤30d 7 -5.5% -14.5% 71% 71% -18.9%
≤90d 7 -5.5% -14.5% 71% 71% -18.9%
all 7 -5.5% -14.5% 71% 71% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 71% -18.9%
10% -22.7% 14% -26.7%
15% -30.2% 14% -33.8%
20% -37.0% 0% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$10 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$230
Realized+$12
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage6d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Pakistan Australia 97¢ 96¢ $232 $230 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $19 −$19 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $17 +$2 +12%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Scotland Jun 20 $16 +$2 +11%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 20 $14 +$2 +13%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland Jun 18 $10 +$4 +38%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 17 $9 +$1 +13%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 $0 -25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $230.10 · official $230.10 (match) · 15 history records